{"generated":"2026-09-02","year":2023,"level":"bloc","measures":"refined-metal absorption by bloc (apparent consumption = refined production + imports - exports)","published":["copper","lithium"],"rejected":["cobalt","nickel","ree"],"minerals":{"copper":{"title":"Copper","rows":[{"bloc":"China","production":11860,"net_trade":3347.3,"ac":15207.3,"share":56.4},{"bloc":"EU","production":1980,"net_trade":432.1,"ac":2412.1,"share":9.0},{"bloc":"US","production":0,"net_trade":665.5,"ac":665.5,"share":2.5},{"bloc":"Japan","production":1578,"net_trade":-729.7,"ac":848.3,"share":3.1},{"bloc":"Korea","production":0,"net_trade":58.1,"ac":58.1,"share":0.2},{"bloc":"India","production":655,"net_trade":323.4,"ac":978.4,"share":3.6},{"bloc":"Other","production":10871,"net_trade":-4096.8,"ac":6774.2,"share":25.1}],"world":26944,"world_ac":26944.0,"closure_pct":0.0,"china_share":56,"china_known":56,"tier":"A","badge":"measured","checks":{"stage_match":true,"hs_purity":"clean","contained_metal":"ok","global_closure":"n/a (world net trade ~cancels)","anchor1_china":"56% vs known 56% (+0pp)","anchor2":"USGS US apparent consumption 1.6 Mt + ICSG 15.5 Mt"},"hs_note":"refined copper, unwrought (HS 7403.11/12/13/19) \u2014 matches \"refinery production\" cleanly"},"lithium":{"title":"Lithium","rows":[{"bloc":"China","production":169.7,"net_trade":-7.6,"ac":162.1,"share":67.1},{"bloc":"EU","production":0,"net_trade":15.4,"ac":15.4,"share":6.4},{"bloc":"US","production":0,"net_trade":3.0,"ac":3.0,"share":1.3},{"bloc":"Japan","production":0,"net_trade":50.9,"ac":50.9,"share":21.1},{"bloc":"Korea","production":0,"net_trade":161.9,"ac":161.9,"share":67.0},{"bloc":"India","production":0,"net_trade":1.9,"ac":1.9,"share":0.8},{"bloc":"Other","production":71.9,"net_trade":-225.5,"ac":-153.6,"share":-63.6}],"world":242,"world_ac":241.6,"closure_pct":0.2,"china_share":67,"china_known":65,"tier":"B","badge":"measured (one caveat)","checks":{"stage_match":true,"hs_purity":"clean","contained_metal":"ok","global_closure":"n/a (world net trade ~cancels)","anchor1_china":"67% vs known 65% (+2pp)","anchor2":"none free"},"hs_note":"Li carbonate + hydroxide (HS 2836.91 / 2825.20) \u2014 matches lithium-chemical output; no free 2nd country anchor"},"cobalt":{"title":"Cobalt","rows":[{"bloc":"China","production":196.1,"net_trade":404.8,"ac":600.9,"share":222.9},{"bloc":"EU","production":20.1,"net_trade":5.4,"ac":25.5,"share":9.5},{"bloc":"US","production":0,"net_trade":0.6,"ac":0.6,"share":0.2},{"bloc":"Japan","production":5.6,"net_trade":1.8,"ac":7.4,"share":2.8},{"bloc":"Korea","production":0,"net_trade":11.6,"ac":11.6,"share":4.3},{"bloc":"India","production":0,"net_trade":-1.1,"ac":-1.1,"share":-0.4},{"bloc":"Other","production":47.8,"net_trade":-423.3,"ac":-375.5,"share":-139.3}],"world":270,"world_ac":269.6,"closure_pct":0.1,"china_share":223,"china_known":55,"tier":"D","badge":"not publishable","checks":{"stage_match":false,"hs_purity":"bundled","contained_metal":"ok","global_closure":"n/a (world net trade ~cancels)","anchor1_china":"223% vs known 55% (+168pp)","anchor2":"none free"},"hs_note":"unwrought cobalt / mattes / powders (HS 8105.20) \u2014 BUNDLES the DRC hydroxide intermediate China imports to refine, so production + imports double-counts. Fix = national lines (China 81052010 feedstock vs 81052020 refined) \u2014 a later tier"},"nickel":{"title":"Nickel","rows":[{"bloc":"China","production":1091.1,"net_trade":75.2,"ac":1166.3,"share":32.4},{"bloc":"EU","production":62.0,"net_trade":172.7,"ac":234.7,"share":6.5},{"bloc":"US","production":0,"net_trade":95.9,"ac":95.9,"share":2.7},{"bloc":"Japan","production":0,"net_trade":19.7,"ac":19.7,"share":0.5},{"bloc":"Korea","production":0,"net_trade":32.8,"ac":32.8,"share":0.9},{"bloc":"India","production":0,"net_trade":31.1,"ac":31.1,"share":0.9},{"bloc":"Other","production":2443.7,"net_trade":-427.5,"ac":2016.2,"share":56.1}],"world":3597,"world_ac":3596.8,"closure_pct":0.0,"china_share":32,"china_known":56,"tier":"D","badge":"not publishable","checks":{"stage_match":false,"hs_purity":"split","contained_metal":"partial","global_closure":"n/a (world net trade ~cancels)","anchor1_china":"32% vs known 56% (+24pp)","anchor2":"none free"},"hs_note":"refined unwrought class-I nickel (HS 7502.10) \u2014 MISSES class-II ferronickel/NPI, most of world nickel; the ferronickel HS 7202.60 fix also fails (bundles ~12% NPI with ~35% ferronickel). Needs a lane-specific content model"},"ree":{"title":"Rare earths","rows":[{"bloc":"China","production":73.8,"net_trade":73.2,"ac":147.0,"share":181.7},{"bloc":"EU","production":0,"net_trade":5.3,"ac":5.3,"share":6.5},{"bloc":"US","production":1.0,"net_trade":5.2,"ac":6.2,"share":7.6},{"bloc":"Japan","production":0,"net_trade":11.6,"ac":11.6,"share":14.3},{"bloc":"Korea","production":0,"net_trade":-1.5,"ac":-1.5,"share":-1.8},{"bloc":"India","production":0,"net_trade":0.3,"ac":0.3,"share":0.4},{"bloc":"Other","production":6.1,"net_trade":-94.0,"ac":-87.9,"share":-108.7}],"world":81,"world_ac":80.9,"closure_pct":0.1,"china_share":182,"china_known":65,"tier":"D","badge":"not publishable","checks":{"stage_match":false,"hs_purity":"bundled","contained_metal":"partial","global_closure":"n/a (world net trade ~cancels)","anchor1_china":"182% vs known 65% (+117pp)","anchor2":"none free"},"hs_note":"REE metals + compounds (HS 2805.30 / 2846.90) \u2014 spread across codes, mixes intermediates with refined, and lumps elements. Fix = national 8-digit lines (China 2846.90 -> NdPr/Dy oxide) + stoichiometry \u2014 a later tier"}},"country_level":{"copper":{"title":"Copper","rows":[{"iso":"CHN","prod":11062.0,"net":3314.6,"ac":14376.6,"share":56.7,"hub":false},{"iso":"USA","prod":970.0,"net":765.4,"ac":1735.4,"share":6.8,"hub":false},{"iso":"DEU","prod":609.0,"net":318.5,"ac":927.5,"share":3.7,"hub":false},{"iso":"JPN","prod":1551.1,"net":-709.6,"ac":841.5,"share":3.3,"hub":false},{"iso":"KOR","prod":637.9,"net":91.5,"ac":729.4,"share":2.9,"hub":false},{"iso":"IND","prod":426.0,"net":253.3,"ac":679.3,"share":2.7,"hub":false},{"iso":"RUS","prod":1010.0,"net":-332.4,"ac":677.6,"share":2.7,"hub":false},{"iso":"MEX","prod":486.1,"net":107.5,"ac":593.6,"share":2.3,"hub":false},{"iso":"ITA","prod":9.9,"net":505.5,"ac":515.4,"share":2.0,"hub":false},{"iso":"TUR","prod":134.6,"net":356.6,"ac":491.2,"share":1.9,"hub":false},{"iso":"ESP","prod":297.9,"net":20.3,"ac":318.2,"share":1.3,"hub":false},{"iso":"THA","prod":0,"net":308.6,"ac":308.6,"share":1.2,"hub":false},{"iso":"POL","prod":586.0,"net":-277.6,"ac":308.4,"share":1.2,"hub":false},{"iso":"SWE","prod":218.0,"net":77.0,"ac":295.0,"share":1.2,"hub":false},{"iso":"BRA","prod":8.6,"net":281.5,"ac":290.1,"share":1.1,"hub":false}],"review":[{"iso":"COD","prod":1774.5,"net":-2046.5,"ac":-272.0,"share":-1.1,"hub":false},{"iso":"COG","prod":9.0,"net":-197.4,"ac":-188.4,"share":-0.7,"hub":false},{"iso":"SRB","prod":24.6,"net":-143.6,"ac":-119.0,"share":-0.5,"hub":false},{"iso":"LAO","prod":6.6,"net":-11.5,"ac":-4.9,"share":-0.0,"hub":false},{"iso":"AUS","prod":400.9,"net":-401.0,"ac":-0.1,"share":-0.0,"hub":false}],"n_countries":63,"n_review_prod":5,"n_review_transit":60,"world_ac":25377.0,"world_prod":25872.6,"closure_pct":1.9,"china_share":57,"china_known":56,"share_year":2024,"tier":"A","badge":"measured","prod_year":2022,"trade_year":2024,"hs":"740311","anchor2":{"name":"ICSG refined-copper usage (China ~56%)","kind":"reproducibility-check","note":"REPRODUCIBILITY CHECK, not an anchor: ICSG 'refined copper usage' is itself apparent consumption (refined production + net trade + stock change) \u2014 the same sum, same inputs as ours. Landing within 1pp of it confirms our trade parsing and arithmetic are sound; it does NOT independently validate the premise. (ICSG separately estimates China's 'real' usage with an unreported-scrap add-on, a partial bottom-up element, but the headline usage figure is apparent-consumption-based.)"},"of_what":"refined-metal apparent consumption = refined production + imports - exports at the stated HS codes; measures refined-metal ABSORPTION only (excludes direct-melt scrap, which is large in fabricator economies) and assumes zero stock change (materially wrong for China in heavy bonded/SRB stocking years)","hs_note":"Four-code test (BACI 2024): adding wire-bars/billets/other-refined 740312/313/319 to cathode 740311 moves every top-15 share by <=0.3pp (fabricators Italy/Germany/Korea/Turkey <=0.1pp; China +1.0pp) and leaves world AC unchanged (they net out globally). So cathode 740311 alone is materially adequate. The published figure keeps the atlas pipeline's RECONCILED/hub-deduped 740311 (higher trade quality than raw BACI); the reconciliation gain (~1pp on China) and the four-code completeness gain roughly cancel.","share_note":"","prod_source":"USGS Minerals Yearbook Copper 2022, Table 22 (world refinery production by country)"},"silicon":{"title":"Silicon","rows":[{"iso":"CHN","prod":2200.0,"net":-602.8,"ac":1597.2,"share":56.3,"hub":false},{"iso":"DEU","prod":28.0,"net":211.8,"ac":239.8,"share":8.5,"hub":false},{"iso":"JPN","prod":0,"net":184.7,"ac":184.7,"share":6.5,"hub":false},{"iso":"USA","prod":0,"net":113.6,"ac":113.6,"share":4.0,"hub":false},{"iso":"KOR","prod":0,"net":82.8,"ac":82.8,"share":2.9,"hub":false},{"iso":"GBR","prod":0,"net":78.6,"ac":78.6,"share":2.8,"hub":true},{"iso":"THA","prod":0,"net":74.6,"ac":74.6,"share":2.6,"hub":false},{"iso":"RUS","prod":57.0,"net":13.7,"ac":70.7,"share":2.5,"hub":false},{"iso":"IND","prod":0,"net":59.1,"ac":59.1,"share":2.1,"hub":false},{"iso":"ITA","prod":0,"net":52.4,"ac":52.4,"share":1.8,"hub":false},{"iso":"FRA","prod":87.0,"net":-37.0,"ac":50.0,"share":1.8,"hub":false},{"iso":"ARE","prod":0,"net":36.8,"ac":36.8,"share":1.3,"hub":true},{"iso":"MEX","prod":0,"net":25.5,"ac":25.5,"share":0.9,"hub":false},{"iso":"POL","prod":0,"net":23.8,"ac":23.8,"share":0.8,"hub":false},{"iso":"NLD","prod":0,"net":20.4,"ac":20.4,"share":0.7,"hub":true}],"review":[{"iso":"NOR","prod":140.0,"net":-197.7,"ac":-57.7,"share":-2.0,"hub":false},{"iso":"LAO","prod":0.9,"net":-0.9,"ac":0.0,"share":0.0,"hub":false}],"n_countries":75,"n_review_prod":2,"n_review_transit":77,"world_ac":2834.6,"world_prod":2849.9,"closure_pct":0.5,"china_share":56,"china_known":55,"share_year":2020,"tier":"B","badge":"measured (one caveat)","prod_year":2020,"trade_year":2020,"hs":"280469","anchor2":{"name":"industry/USGS silicon-metal consumption (China ~55-60%)","independent":false,"note":"the China anchor is a 5-point RANGE (~55-60%), not a point \u2014 almost any plausible build lands inside a 5-point band, so it cannot discriminate a good number from a mediocre one; and USGS is our production input, so there is still no second source with a different upstream. A POINT anchor (a national statistics office publishing silicon consumption, or an independently-built Eurostat PRODCOM EU figure) is what would move silicon toward A.","kind":"no-study-group"},"of_what":"METALLURGICAL silicon metal (HS 280469, <99.99% Si) apparent consumption = production + imports - exports. NOT polysilicon (HS 280461, the solar chain) and NOT semiconductors; silicon metal goes mostly to aluminium alloying, silicones, then polysilicon feedstock. Refined absorption only; 2020 snapshot (USGS MYB silicon lags and the industry has grown since); assumes zero stock change.","hs_note":"280469 (<99.99% Si) bundles THREE grades in one code \u2014 aluminium-alloy grade, chemical/silicone grade, and some upgraded-metallurgical (UMG) silicon \u2014 different markets and prices, one HS heading. Fine for a tonnage measure of silicon-metal ABSORPTION (all three are silicon metal being absorbed); NOT usable for any end-use claim, and the reason this can never be an A on HS purity. Ferrosilicon (720221/29) correctly excluded. Trade is hub-exposed (44% of flows, 23% of value via entrep\u00f4ts; Netherlands a top exporter) \u2014 but apparent consumption self-cancels transit, so hubs are annotated, not netted.","share_note":"China's silicon-metal output roughly DOUBLED after 2020, so the 2020 share has very likely moved \u2014 read 56% as a 2020 figure, not today's.","prod_source":"USGS Minerals Yearbook Silicon 2020, Table 7 (silicon metal rows only, world production by country)"},"lead":{"title":"Lead","rows":[{"iso":"CHN","prod":5226.0,"net":-132.7,"ac":5093.3,"share":43.5,"hub":false},{"iso":"USA","prod":1010.0,"net":525.7,"ac":1535.7,"share":13.1,"hub":false},{"iso":"IND","prod":966.0,"net":-75.0,"ac":891.0,"share":7.6,"hub":false},{"iso":"KOR","prod":760.4,"net":-161.1,"ac":599.3,"share":5.1,"hub":false},{"iso":"BRA","prod":278.0,"net":52.3,"ac":330.3,"share":2.8,"hub":false},{"iso":"DEU","prod":227.0,"net":94.7,"ac":321.7,"share":2.7,"hub":false},{"iso":"MEX","prod":419.0,"net":-102.9,"ac":316.1,"share":2.7,"hub":false},{"iso":"JPN","prod":295.0,"net":13.7,"ac":308.7,"share":2.6,"hub":false},{"iso":"ESP","prod":192.0,"net":42.1,"ac":234.1,"share":2.0,"hub":false},{"iso":"TUR","prod":90.0,"net":137.7,"ac":227.7,"share":1.9,"hub":false},{"iso":"GBR","prod":312.0,"net":-93.2,"ac":218.8,"share":1.9,"hub":true},{"iso":"VNM","prod":36.0,"net":141.7,"ac":177.7,"share":1.5,"hub":false},{"iso":"ITA","prod":133.4,"net":39.4,"ac":172.8,"share":1.5,"hub":false},{"iso":"POL","prod":154.0,"net":2.3,"ac":156.3,"share":1.3,"hub":false},{"iso":"CZE","prod":43.0,"net":86.2,"ac":129.2,"share":1.1,"hub":false}],"review":[{"iso":"SWE","prod":71.0,"net":-87.9,"ac":-16.9,"share":-0.1,"hub":false},{"iso":"AUS","prod":131.0,"net":-141.2,"ac":-10.2,"share":-0.1,"hub":false},{"iso":"NGA","prod":36.0,"net":-40.1,"ac":-4.1,"share":-0.0,"hub":false}],"n_countries":69,"n_review_prod":3,"n_review_transit":69,"world_ac":11710.3,"world_prod":11730.8,"closure_pct":0.2,"china_share":43,"china_known":44,"share_year":2022,"tier":"A","badge":"measured","prod_year":2022,"trade_year":2022,"hs":"780110","anchor2":{"name":"ILZSG refined-lead usage (China ~44%)","kind":"reproducibility-check","note":"REPRODUCIBILITY CHECK, not an anchor: ILZSG 'refined lead usage' is itself apparent consumption (production + net trade) for most countries \u2014 the same sum we do. Matching it confirms the arithmetic, not the premise. No free source measures lead use bottom-up."},"of_what":"refined-lead apparent consumption = refined production + imports - exports (HS 780110, refined unwrought lead). Refined-metal absorption; matched year 2022; excludes lead alloys (780191 Pb-Sb / 780199 other) and direct scrap-melt; assumes zero stock change.","hs_note":"780110 = refined unwrought lead, the clean refined form; lead alloys (780191/780199) excluded. Low hub exposure \u2014 top exporters (Korea, Australia, India, China) are producers, not entrepots.","share_note":"","prod_source":"USGS Minerals Yearbook Lead (world refinery production by country), 2022"},"zinc":{"title":"Zinc","rows":[{"iso":"CHN","prod":6358,"net":-25.7,"ac":6332.3,"share":47.8,"hub":false},{"iso":"USA","prod":220,"net":506.4,"ac":726.4,"share":5.5,"hub":false},{"iso":"KOR","prod":970,"net":-303.4,"ac":666.6,"share":5.0,"hub":false},{"iso":"IND","prod":816,"net":-339.3,"ac":476.7,"share":3.6,"hub":false},{"iso":"JPN","prod":517,"net":-103.1,"ac":413.9,"share":3.1,"hub":false},{"iso":"BEL","prod":255,"net":104.4,"ac":359.4,"share":2.7,"hub":true},{"iso":"DEU","prod":140,"net":193.4,"ac":333.4,"share":2.5,"hub":false},{"iso":"NLD","prod":180,"net":127.2,"ac":307.2,"share":2.3,"hub":true},{"iso":"ESP","prod":500,"net":-201.9,"ac":298.1,"share":2.3,"hub":false},{"iso":"MEX","prod":337,"net":-60.4,"ac":276.6,"share":2.1,"hub":false},{"iso":"CAN","prod":485,"net":-213.1,"ac":271.9,"share":2.1,"hub":false},{"iso":"ITA","prod":100,"net":144.6,"ac":244.6,"share":1.8,"hub":false},{"iso":"BRA","prod":243,"net":1.6,"ac":244.6,"share":1.8,"hub":false},{"iso":"RUS","prod":182,"net":23.1,"ac":205.1,"share":1.5,"hub":false},{"iso":"IRN","prod":208,"net":-3.2,"ac":204.8,"share":1.5,"hub":false}],"review":[],"n_countries":105,"n_review_prod":0,"n_review_transit":37,"world_ac":13234.6,"world_prod":13392,"closure_pct":1.2,"china_share":48,"china_known":48,"share_year":2022,"tier":"A","badge":"measured","prod_year":2022,"trade_year":2022,"hs":"790111","anchor2":{"name":"ILZSG refined-zinc usage (China ~48%)","kind":"reproducibility-check","note":"REPRODUCIBILITY CHECK, not an anchor: ILZSG 'refined zinc usage' is itself apparent consumption (production + net trade), the same sum we do \u2014 matching it confirms the arithmetic, not the premise."},"of_what":"refined-zinc apparent consumption = refined production + imports - exports (HS 790111, special-high-grade unwrought zinc >=99.99%). Refined-metal absorption; matched year 2022; excludes zinc alloys and direct scrap-melt; assumes zero stock change.","hs_note":"790111 = SHG unwrought zinc, the clean refined form. Most hub-exposed metal built (31% of trade value via entrepots vs silicon 23%, copper 8%) \u2014 but apparent consumption self-cancels transit: Belgium (Nyrstar) and Netherlands (Budel) are real smelters, UAE/UK real galvanizing; measured zero-production transit residue is only 1.2% of world AC. Hubs annotated, NOT netted (netting would delete real Belgian/Dutch/UAE consumption).","share_note":"","prod_source":"USGS Minerals Yearbook Zinc 2022, Table 17 (world smelter production by country)"}},"validation":"Each metal is graded A/B/C/D on a scorecard (stage-match, HS purity, contained-metal, global closure, multi-anchor), not a single China-share gate. Only A/B are published as measured. Copper is A (clean HS; China 56%=known 56%; anchored to ICSG 15.5 Mt and USGS US 1.6 Mt, two independent sources). Lithium is B (clean, but no free 2nd country anchor). Cobalt/nickel/REE are D: their HS codes bundle intermediates or split forms, so production + imports double-counts (China lands at 223% / 32% / 182% of world).","ceiling":"Apparent consumption measures refined-metal absorption, not final demand: it misses metal embodied in imported finished goods. It is bloc-level today; per-country and more metals (lead/zinc/tin/aluminium are the next clean-HS candidates; cobalt/REE need national 8-digit customs lines) are the registry's next phases. Global closure ~cancels under balanced trade, so the real validation is the anchors, not closure.","sources":"Production: IEA Critical Minerals Dataset 2024 (CC BY) + Eurostat PRODCOM ds-059358 (EU-27 refined copper) + USGS MCS 2025. Trade: CEPII BACI 2023, refined-form HS. Anchors: ICSG Copper Factbook (free), USGS (free); study-group country usage (INSG/ILZSG/WBMS) is paywalled."}