{"summary":{"n":32,"by_moat":{"import-fed capability":6,"by-product capability":4,"integrated (endowment+capability)":1,"refining capability":18,"mine-side endowment":3},"strong_alt":7,"has_buildout":21,"chokepoint_gap":4,"buildout_gap":11},"materials":[{"label":"magnesium","name":"Magnesium","commodity":"Magnesium, unwrought","title_code":"810411","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":88.6,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"China leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":0.789,"spof":true,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"current alternative-supplier share (a WEAKER proxy: it shows who already produces, not who could scale) -- no capability-adjacency available for this code","candidates":[{"iso":"RU","name":"Russian Federation","score":4.0},{"iso":"US","name":"USA","score":3.2},{"iso":"IL","name":"Israel","score":1.7},{"iso":"KZ","name":"Kazakhstan","score":1.5}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":{"from":2100.0,"to":2028.5,"growth_pct":-3,"stage":"refining"},"iea":null,"gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"China holds ~89% of refined supply; current alternatives: Russian Federation, USA; forward capacity tracked (USGS Outlook)."},{"label":"gallium","name":"Gallium","commodity":"Gallium","title_code":"811292","flags":["shared_refined","byproduct"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":87.3,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"by-product capability","moat_note":"China extracts it as a by-product of a domestic host metal at a scale no one else recovers. There is no ore stream to redirect — substitution means new by-product recovery lines on someone else’s host.","hhi":0.766,"spof":true,"shared":true},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"current alternative-supplier share (a WEAKER proxy: it shows who already produces, not who could scale) -- no capability-adjacency available for this code","candidates":[{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","score":4.7},{"iso":"KZ","name":"Kazakhstan","score":2.9},{"iso":"KR","name":"Rep. of Korea","score":1.9},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","score":1.2}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"METLEN — Aluminium of Greece","iso":"GR","stage":"refine","status":"gallium from alumina; EU-backed (from ~2024)"},{"name":"Rio Tinto / Indium Corp — Vaudreuil (Québec)","iso":"CA","stage":"refine","status":"first gallium extracted 2025 (from alumina)"},{"name":"Teck — Trail Operations","iso":"CA","stage":"refine","status":"polymetallic smelter; Ga/Ge/In byproduct recovery"}],"forward":{"from":859.5,"to":959.5,"growth_pct":12,"stage":"refining"},"iea":"China imposed gallium export controls in 2023. Gallium has no dedicated ore — it is recovered from alumina (Bayer) liquor or zinc residues, so every project below is a bolt-on to an existing refinery, not a new mine.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"China holds ~87% of refined supply; current alternatives: Germany, Kazakhstan; being built: METLEN, Rio Tinto / Indium Corp."},{"label":"niobium","name":"Niobium","commodity":"Ferro-niobium","title_code":"720293","flags":["shared_ore"],"problem":{"leader":"BR","leader_name":"Brazil","leader_share":76.2,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"Brazil leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":true,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","score":9.1},{"iso":"NL","name":"Netherlands","score":6.2},{"iso":"SG","name":"Singapore","score":4.3}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"NioCorp — Elk Creek","iso":"US","stage":"mine + refine","status":"financing; EXIM review (DoD interest)"},{"name":"Global Advanced Metals — Boyertown","iso":"US","stage":"refine","status":"US Nb/Ta refiner; DPA Title III support"},{"name":"NioBay — Crevier","iso":"CA","stage":"mine + refine","status":"Nb-Ta; pilot products"}],"forward":null,"iea":"~90% of niobium is Brazil (CBMM), a stable ally-supplier — so this is a resilience/second-source story, not a China chokepoint. Ferroniobium and Nb metal outside Brazil/Canada are thin.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"Brazil holds ~76% of refined supply; current alternatives: Canada, Netherlands; being built: NioCorp, Global Advanced Metals."},{"label":"lithium","name":"Lithium","commodity":"Lithium carbonate","title_code":"283691","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"CL","leader_name":"Chile","leader_share":76.0,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"Chile leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"current alternative-supplier share (a WEAKER proxy: it shows who already produces, not who could scale) -- no capability-adjacency available for this code","candidates":[{"iso":"AU","name":"Australia","score":41.2},{"iso":"CN","name":"China","score":19.3},{"iso":"AR","name":"Argentina","score":6.8},{"iso":"ZW","name":"Zimbabwe","score":4.8}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Rio Tinto — Rincón","iso":"AR","stage":"mine + refine","status":"60 kt expansion; first production ~2028 (DLE)"},{"name":"Thacker Pass","iso":"US","stage":"mine","status":"under construction (Lithium Americas / GM; US govt stake 2025)"},{"name":"Kathleen Valley","iso":"AU","stage":"mine","status":"ramping (hard-rock)"}],"forward":{"from":265.7,"to":561.7,"growth_pct":111,"stage":"mine"},"iea":"IEA (to ~2035): lithium MINING growth outside the dominant supplier outpaces planned refining / cathode-material capacity, so refined-lithium concentration stays high.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"Chile holds ~76% of refined supply; current alternatives: Australia, China; being built: Rio Tinto, Thacker Pass."},{"label":"titanium","name":"Titanium","commodity":"Titanium, unwrought","title_code":"810820","flags":["clean_pair"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":65.9,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"import-fed capability","moat_note":"China IMPORTS the ore and EXPORTS the refined metal — the moat is the furnace, not the mine. Export controls on ore cannot touch it; only building refining capability elsewhere can.","hhi":0.467,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"capability-adjacency","strong":true,"desc":"product-space density with the leader removed -- latent capability to stand up refining, not just present output","candidates":[{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","score":0.485,"mines":18,"refines":18},{"iso":"RU","name":"Russian Federation","score":0.158,"mines":6,"refines":6},{"iso":"KZ","name":"Kazakhstan","score":0.083,"mines":4,"refines":4},{"iso":"SA","name":"Saudi Arabia","score":0.079,"mines":4,"refines":4}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":{"from":414.0,"to":553.0,"growth_pct":34,"stage":"refining"},"iea":null,"gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"China holds ~66% of refined supply; capability-adjacent alternatives: Japan, Russian Federation; forward capacity tracked (USGS Outlook)."},{"label":"magnets","name":"Magnets","commodity":"Rare-earth permanent magnets","title_code":"850511","flags":["magnet"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":61.4,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"import-fed capability","moat_note":"China IMPORTS the ore and EXPORTS the refined metal — the moat is the furnace, not the mine. Export controls on ore cannot touch it; only building refining capability elsewhere can.","hhi":null,"spof":true,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"PH","name":"Philippines","score":8.1},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","score":7.8},{"iso":"VN","name":"Viet Nam","score":6.3}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Lynas — Mt Weld + Kalgoorlie","iso":"AU","stage":"mine + refine","status":"operating (Kalgoorlie 2024; first Dy oxide outside China, 2025)"},{"name":"Lynas — Seadrift / Hondo","iso":"US","stage":"refine","status":"under construction (Texas)"},{"name":"MP Materials — Mountain Pass + Fort Worth","iso":"US","stage":"mine + magnet","status":"magnet trial production 2025 (DoD-backed)"},{"name":"Iluka — Eneabba refinery","iso":"AU","stage":"refine","status":"commissioning ~2026 (govt-backed)"},{"name":"Arafura — Nolans","iso":"AU","stage":"mine + refine","status":"financed; Nd/Pr production ~2032"}],"forward":null,"iea":"IEA (to ~2035): announced non-China rare-earth MINING reaches ~50 kt, but planned refining/separation outside China is under 40 kt and magnet capacity only ~18 kt — the downstream lags the mine. Top-refiner share is projected to slip from >90% toward ~70%.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"China holds ~61% of refined supply; current alternatives: Philippines, Japan; being built: Lynas, MP Materials."},{"label":"helium","name":"Helium","commodity":null,"title_code":"280429","flags":["mine_only"],"problem":{"leader":"US","leader_name":"USA","leader_share":55.4,"stage_noun":"total","moat_type":"mine-side endowment","moat_note":"USA’s dominance is geological — a mined commodity with no refining wedge. Diversification is exploration and off-take agreements, not new furnaces.","hhi":0.371,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"current alternative-supplier share (a WEAKER proxy: it shows who already produces, not who could scale) -- no capability-adjacency available for this code","candidates":[{"iso":"QA","name":"Qatar","score":19.5},{"iso":"DZ","name":"Algeria","score":13.6},{"iso":"RU","name":"Russian Federation","score":8.4},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","score":3.1}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":{"from":376.4,"to":462.8,"growth_pct":23,"stage":"refining"},"iea":null,"gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"USA’s dominance is geological — a mined commodity with no refining wedge. Diversification is exploration and off-take agreements, not new furnaces."},{"label":"boron","name":"Boron","commodity":"Natural borates","title_code":"252800","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"TR","leader_name":"Türkiye","leader_share":54.7,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"Türkiye leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"BO","name":"Bolivia","score":21.3},{"iso":"AR","name":"Argentina","score":9.0},{"iso":"AT","name":"Austria","score":3.7}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":null,"iea":null,"gap":true,"gap_kind":"chokepoint"},"verdict":"Türkiye holds ~55% of refined supply; current alternatives: Bolivia, Argentina; no diversification project tracked (sourcing gap)."},{"label":"phosphorus","name":"Phosphorus","commodity":"Phosphorus","title_code":"280470","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"VN","leader_name":"Viet Nam","leader_share":45.2,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"Viet Nam leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"KZ","name":"Kazakhstan","score":34.3},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","score":8.8}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Cahya Mata — Samalaju yellow phosphorus","iso":"MY","stage":"refine","status":"hydropower-fed complex — the main new furnace outside CN/KZ/VN"},{"name":"Bayer / Itafos — Caldwell Canyon (Soda Springs)","iso":"US","stage":"mine","status":"FAST-41 feed mine sustaining the last US P4 plant"},{"name":"FlashPhos — P4 from sewage-sludge ash","iso":"DE","stage":"refine","status":"EU consortium; full-scale design ~2026 (circular P4)"}],"forward":null,"iea":"Elemental (white/yellow) phosphorus P4 — the industrial feedstock, not fertiliser. The non-China pipeline is genuinely THIN and structural: P4 furnaces are power-intensive and hard to permit, and Europe has produced no primary P4 since Thermphos closed (2012). What exists is one new hydropower-fed furnace, a feed mine sustaining the last US plant, and a waste-recovery route.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"Viet Nam holds ~45% of refined supply; current alternatives: Kazakhstan, United States; being built: Cahya Mata, Bayer / Itafos."},{"label":"nickel","name":"Nickel","commodity":"Nickel, unwrought","title_code":"750210","flags":["clean_pair"],"problem":{"leader":"ID","leader_name":"Indonesia","leader_share":44.3,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"import-fed capability","moat_note":"Indonesia IMPORTS the ore and EXPORTS the refined metal — the moat is the furnace, not the mine. Export controls on ore cannot touch it; only building refining capability elsewhere can.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"capability-adjacency","strong":true,"desc":"product-space density with the leader removed -- latent capability to stand up refining, not just present output","candidates":[{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","score":0.291,"mines":5,"refines":3},{"iso":"RU","name":"Russian Federation","score":0.139,"mines":6,"refines":4},{"iso":"BR","name":"Brazil","score":0.12,"mines":2,"refines":1},{"iso":"AU","name":"Australia","score":0.114,"mines":4,"refines":2},{"iso":"PH","name":"Philippines","score":0.088,"mines":11,"refines":0}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Canada Nickel — Crawford","iso":"CA","stage":"mine + refine","status":"permitting fast-tracked; refinery planned"},{"name":"Jervois — São Miguel Paulista (SMP)","iso":"BR","stage":"refine","status":"Ni-Co refinery restart; EU Strategic Project"},{"name":"Talon Metals — Tamarack","iso":"US","stage":"mine","status":"permitting; DoD-backed"}],"forward":null,"iea":"The chokepoint is Indonesia (+ China-controlled Indonesian HPAL), not China alone. Class-1 nickel-sulphate capacity elsewhere was largely IDLED in 2024 on the price rout — the pipeline here is fragile, which is itself the finding.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"Indonesia holds ~44% of refined supply; capability-adjacent alternatives: Canada, Russian Federation; being built: Canada Nickel, Jervois."},{"label":"feldspar","name":"Feldspar","commodity":"Feldspar","title_code":"252910","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"TR","leader_name":"Türkiye","leader_share":41.5,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"Türkiye leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"IN","name":"India","score":9.6},{"iso":"ZA","name":"South Africa","score":9.4},{"iso":"CN","name":"China","score":6.4}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":null,"iea":null,"gap":true,"gap_kind":"chokepoint"},"verdict":"Türkiye holds ~42% of refined supply; current alternatives: India, South Africa; no diversification project tracked (sourcing gap)."},{"label":"cokingcoal","name":"Cokingcoal","commodity":null,"title_code":"270112","flags":["mine_only"],"problem":{"leader":"AU","leader_name":"Australia","leader_share":40.4,"stage_noun":"total","moat_type":"mine-side endowment","moat_note":"Australia’s dominance is geological — a mined commodity with no refining wedge. Diversification is exploration and off-take agreements, not new furnaces.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":null,"strong":false,"desc":"no alternative-supplier signal in public data -- a genuine chokepoint OR a sourcing gap","candidates":[]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":null,"iea":null,"gap":true,"gap_kind":"endowment"},"verdict":"Australia’s dominance is geological — a mined commodity with no refining wedge. Diversification is exploration and off-take agreements, not new furnaces."},{"label":"tungsten","name":"Tungsten","commodity":"Tungsten, unwrought","title_code":"810194","flags":["clean_pair"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":39.7,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"import-fed capability","moat_note":"China IMPORTS the ore and EXPORTS the refined metal — the moat is the furnace, not the mine. Export controls on ore cannot touch it; only building refining capability elsewhere can.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"capability-adjacency","strong":true,"desc":"product-space density with the leader removed -- latent capability to stand up refining, not just present output","candidates":[{"iso":"ES","name":"Spain","score":0.314,"mines":2,"refines":0},{"iso":"VN","name":"Viet Nam","score":0.147,"mines":4,"refines":3},{"iso":"RU","name":"Russian Federation","score":0.059,"mines":3,"refines":0},{"iso":"BO","name":"Bolivia (Plurinational State of)","score":0.009,"mines":2,"refines":0},{"iso":"RW","name":"Rwanda","score":0.003,"mines":2,"refines":0}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Almonty Industries — Sangdong","iso":"KR","stage":"mine + refine","status":"restart 2025-26; US relisting"},{"name":"Fireweed Metals — Mactung","iso":"CA","stage":"mine","status":"DoD DPA-backed (large W resource)"},{"name":"Tungsten West — Hemerdon","iso":"GB","stage":"mine","status":"restart programme (one of Europe’s largest)"}],"forward":null,"iea":"China tightened tungsten export controls in 2025. Western tungsten is mostly a mine-restart story; APT/metal refining capacity outside China remains the thinner link.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"China holds ~40% of refined supply; capability-adjacent alternatives: Spain, Viet Nam; being built: Almonty Industries, Fireweed Metals."},{"label":"arsenic","name":"Arsenic","commodity":"Arsenic","title_code":"280480","flags":["byproduct"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":39.3,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"by-product capability","moat_note":"China extracts it as a by-product of a domestic host metal at a scale no one else recovers. There is no ore stream to redirect — substitution means new by-product recovery lines on someone else’s host.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","score":29.0},{"iso":"NL","name":"Netherlands","score":8.6}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":null,"iea":"Arsenic is an UNWANTED by-product of copper and lead smelting — supply simply tracks those smelters. There is no diversification pipeline because no one seeks to expand arsenic output; public projects aim to STABILISE or dispose of it, and substitution means designing it out of products, not sourcing it elsewhere. The blank here is the finding, not missing data.","gap":true,"gap_kind":"chokepoint"},"verdict":"China holds ~39% of refined supply; current alternatives: Japan, Netherlands; no diversification pipeline — structural (see note)."},{"label":"bauxite","name":"Bauxite","commodity":"Aluminium ores / bauxite","title_code":"260600","flags":["clean_pair"],"problem":{"leader":"AU","leader_name":"Australia","leader_share":37.3,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"Australia leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"capability-adjacency","strong":true,"desc":"product-space density with the leader removed -- latent capability to stand up refining, not just present output","candidates":[{"iso":"IN","name":"India","score":0.465,"mines":6,"refines":6},{"iso":"ID","name":"Indonesia","score":0.247,"mines":5,"refines":2},{"iso":"BR","name":"Brazil","score":0.179,"mines":8,"refines":7},{"iso":"JM","name":"Jamaica","score":0.014,"mines":2,"refines":1},{"iso":"GN","name":"Guinea","score":0.005,"mines":24,"refines":0}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":null,"iea":null,"gap":true,"gap_kind":"chokepoint"},"verdict":"Australia holds ~37% of refined supply; capability-adjacent alternatives: India, Indonesia; no diversification project tracked (sourcing gap)."},{"label":"graphite","name":"Graphite","commodity":"Natural graphite","title_code":"250490","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":36.6,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"China leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","score":14.5},{"iso":"TZ","name":"United Rep. of Tanzania","score":11.7},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","score":6.7}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Syrah — Balama + Vidalia anode","iso":"US","stage":"mine + refine","status":"Vidalia active anode material; DOE-backed"},{"name":"Graphite One — Graphite Creek + Ohio AAM","iso":"US","stage":"mine + refine","status":"DPA-funded study; Alaska mine + Ohio anode"},{"name":"Nouveau Monde Graphite — Matawinie","iso":"CA","stage":"mine + refine","status":"construction (mine + anode)"},{"name":"Talga — Vittangi","iso":"SE","stage":"mine + refine","status":"anode project; permitting (EU)"}],"forward":null,"iea":"IEA: African feedstock (Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania) is being paired with anode-material plants in Europe, the US, Japan and Korea, but midstream (spherical/coated anode) still lags China.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"China holds ~37% of refined supply; current alternatives: Germany, United Rep. of Tanzania; being built: Syrah, Graphite One."},{"label":"platinum","name":"Platinum","commodity":"Platinum, unwrought","title_code":"711011","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"ZA","leader_name":"South Africa","leader_share":34.6,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"South Africa leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"current alternative-supplier share (a WEAKER proxy: it shows who already produces, not who could scale) -- no capability-adjacency available for this code","candidates":[{"iso":"RU","name":"Russian Federation","score":11.8},{"iso":"ZW","name":"Zimbabwe","score":8.5},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","score":4.4},{"iso":"US","name":"USA","score":2.1}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":{"from":240.5,"to":241.5,"growth_pct":0,"stage":"mine"},"iea":null,"gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"South Africa holds ~35% of refined supply; current alternatives: Russian Federation, Zimbabwe; forward capacity tracked (USGS Outlook)."},{"label":"silicon","name":"Silicon","commodity":"Silicon, < 99.99%","title_code":"280469","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":33.9,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"China leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"NO","name":"Norway","score":19.3},{"iso":"BR","name":"Brazil","score":16.3},{"iso":"FR","name":"France","score":5.5}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Hemlock Semiconductor — polysilicon","iso":"US","stage":"refine","status":"CHIPS-supported expansion"},{"name":"Wacker Chemie — Burghausen","iso":"DE","stage":"refine","status":"polysilicon capacity (EU)"},{"name":"REC Silicon — Moses Lake","iso":"US","stage":"refine","status":"restarted 2024, then idled 2025 (Hanwha)"}],"forward":null,"iea":"Silicon splits into silicon metal and solar-grade POLYSILICON; the acute China dependence is in polysilicon, where Western restarts have struggled on price and trade friction.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"China holds ~34% of refined supply; current alternatives: Norway, Brazil; being built: Hemlock Semiconductor, Wacker Chemie."},{"label":"tantalum","name":"Tantalum","commodity":"Tantalum, unwrought","title_code":"810320","flags":["shared_ore"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":29.3,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"China leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"US","name":"United States","score":16.6},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","score":16.0},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","score":11.3}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Global Advanced Metals — Boyertown","iso":"US","stage":"refine","status":"US tantalum refiner; DLA contracts"},{"name":"Critical Elements — Rose Lithium-Tantalum","iso":"CA","stage":"mine","status":"permitted; infrastructure funding"},{"name":"NioBay — Crevier","iso":"CA","stage":"mine + refine","status":"Nb-Ta project; metallurgical work"}],"forward":null,"iea":"Tantalum mine supply is largely central-African (DRC, Rwanda); the scarce, concentrated link is Ta metal/oxide REFINING, where Global Advanced Metals is the main non-China Western option.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"China holds ~29% of refined supply; current alternatives: United States, Japan; being built: Global Advanced Metals, Critical Elements."},{"label":"fluorspar","name":"Fluorspar","commodity":"Fluorspar, >97% CaF2","title_code":"252922","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"MX","leader_name":"Mexico","leader_share":29.2,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"Mexico leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"ZA","name":"South Africa","score":27.7},{"iso":"VN","name":"Viet Nam","score":9.5}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Ares Strategic Mining — Lost Sheep","iso":"US","stage":"mine + refine","status":"mine & plant advancing"},{"name":"Commerce Resources — Ashram","iso":"CA","stage":"mine","status":"REE + fluorspar; funded studies"}],"forward":null,"iea":"Fluorspar (acid-grade CaF2) underpins the whole fluorine chain (HF, refrigerants, Li-battery electrolytes). China and Mexico dominate; Western primary supply is small and mostly early-stage.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"Mexico holds ~29% of refined supply; current alternatives: South Africa, Viet Nam; being built: Ares Strategic Mining, Commerce Resources."},{"label":"baryte","name":"Baryte","commodity":null,"title_code":"251110","flags":["mine_only"],"problem":{"leader":"IN","leader_name":"India","leader_share":25.4,"stage_noun":"total","moat_type":"mine-side endowment","moat_note":"India’s dominance is geological — a mined commodity with no refining wedge. Diversification is exploration and off-take agreements, not new furnaces.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":null,"strong":false,"desc":"no alternative-supplier signal in public data -- a genuine chokepoint OR a sourcing gap","candidates":[]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":null,"iea":null,"gap":true,"gap_kind":"endowment"},"verdict":"India’s dominance is geological — a mined commodity with no refining wedge. Diversification is exploration and off-take agreements, not new furnaces."},{"label":"germanium","name":"Germanium","commodity":"Germanium","title_code":"811292","flags":["shared_refined","byproduct"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":25.3,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"by-product capability","moat_note":"China extracts it as a by-product of a domestic host metal at a scale no one else recovers. There is no ore stream to redirect — substitution means new by-product recovery lines on someone else’s host.","hhi":null,"spof":true,"shared":true},"who_could":{"method":null,"strong":false,"desc":"no alternative-supplier signal in public data -- a genuine chokepoint OR a sourcing gap","candidates":[]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Umicore — GePETO / Ge recycling","iso":"BE","stage":"refine","status":"EU CRMA Strategic Project (2025)"},{"name":"STL / Umicore — Big Hill (Lubumbashi)","iso":"CD","stage":"refine","status":"germanium from historic slag"},{"name":"Teck — Trail Operations","iso":"CA","stage":"refine","status":"established Ge byproduct refiner"}],"forward":null,"iea":"China imposed germanium export controls in 2023. Like gallium, germanium is recovered as a byproduct (zinc residues, coal fly-ash, recycling) — capacity is refinery bolt-ons.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"China holds ~25% of refined supply; no clear alternative surfaced; being built: Umicore, STL / Umicore."},{"label":"palladium","name":"Palladium","commodity":"Palladium, unwrought","title_code":"711021","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"RU","leader_name":"Russian Federation","leader_share":24.7,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"Russian Federation leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"current alternative-supplier share (a WEAKER proxy: it shows who already produces, not who could scale) -- no capability-adjacency available for this code","candidates":[{"iso":"ZA","name":"South Africa","score":40.9},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","score":9.3},{"iso":"US","name":"USA","score":5.8},{"iso":"ZW","name":"Zimbabwe","score":4.8}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":{"from":273.6,"to":276.1,"growth_pct":1,"stage":"mine"},"iea":null,"gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"Russian Federation holds ~25% of refined supply; current alternatives: South Africa, Canada; forward capacity tracked (USGS Outlook)."},{"label":"cobalt","name":"Cobalt","commodity":"Cobalt oxides & hydroxides","title_code":"282200","flags":["clean_pair"],"problem":{"leader":"FI","leader_name":"Finland","leader_share":23.9,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"import-fed capability","moat_note":"Finland IMPORTS the ore and EXPORTS the refined metal — the moat is the furnace, not the mine. Export controls on ore cannot touch it; only building refining capability elsewhere can.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"capability-adjacency","strong":true,"desc":"product-space density with the leader removed -- latent capability to stand up refining, not just present output","candidates":[{"iso":"ID","name":"Indonesia","score":0.116,"mines":7,"refines":2},{"iso":"RU","name":"Russian Federation","score":0.088,"mines":4,"refines":1},{"iso":"AU","name":"Australia","score":0.083,"mines":2,"refines":2},{"iso":"PH","name":"Philippines","score":0.067,"mines":2,"refines":0},{"iso":"MG","name":"Madagascar","score":0.018,"mines":2,"refines":1}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":{"from":379.0,"to":483.1,"growth_pct":27,"stage":"mine"},"iea":null,"gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"Finland holds ~24% of refined supply; capability-adjacent alternatives: Indonesia, Russian Federation; forward capacity tracked (USGS Outlook)."},{"label":"manganese","name":"Manganese","commodity":"Manganese ore","title_code":"260200","flags":["clean_pair"],"problem":{"leader":"IN","leader_name":"India","leader_share":23.7,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"import-fed capability","moat_note":"India IMPORTS the ore and EXPORTS the refined metal — the moat is the furnace, not the mine. Export controls on ore cannot touch it; only building refining capability elsewhere can.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"NO","name":"Norway","score":11.0},{"iso":"MY","name":"Malaysia","score":8.3}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Euro Manganese — Chvaletice (HPMSM)","iso":"CZ","stage":"mine + refine","status":"demo plant; EU CRMA Strategic Project"},{"name":"Element 25 — Louisiana HPMSM","iso":"US","stage":"refine","status":"DOE/GM-backed; in construction"},{"name":"Giyani Metals — K.Hill","iso":"BW","stage":"mine + refine","status":"battery-grade Mn; offtake sampling"}],"forward":null,"iea":"Manganese ORE is diffuse (South Africa, Gabon, Australia); the concentrated, China-dominated link is battery-grade high-purity manganese sulphate (HPMSM), the target of the projects below.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"India holds ~24% of refined supply; current alternatives: Norway, Malaysia; being built: Euro Manganese, Element 25."},{"label":"antimony","name":"Antimony","commodity":"Antimony, unwrought","title_code":"811010","flags":["clean_pair"],"problem":{"leader":"TJ","leader_name":"Tajikistan","leader_share":23.0,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"Tajikistan leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"capability-adjacency","strong":true,"desc":"product-space density with the leader removed -- latent capability to stand up refining, not just present output","candidates":[{"iso":"TR","name":"Türkiye","score":0.382,"mines":7,"refines":0},{"iso":"MM","name":"Myanmar","score":0.174,"mines":6,"refines":0},{"iso":"RU","name":"Russian Federation","score":0.06,"mines":5,"refines":0},{"iso":"AU","name":"Australia","score":0.043,"mines":3,"refines":0},{"iso":"BO","name":"Bolivia (Plurinational State of)","score":0.031,"mines":4,"refines":0}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Perpetua Resources — Stibnite Gold","iso":"US","stage":"mine","status":"final federal permits 2025; EXIM/DoD-backed"},{"name":"Larvotto Resources — Hillgrove","iso":"AU","stage":"mine + refine","status":"antimony-gold restart, financed; commissioning ~2026"},{"name":"United States Antimony — Montana smelter","iso":"US","stage":"refine","status":"only US Sb smelter; feed & capacity expanding"}],"forward":null,"iea":"China curbed antimony exports in 2024 (licensing, then a US-bound ban) — the trigger for the Western restart wave below. Antimony is also a byproduct-heavy metal, so most projects pair it with gold or tungsten.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"Tajikistan holds ~23% of refined supply; capability-adjacent alternatives: Türkiye, Myanmar; being built: Perpetua Resources, Larvotto Resources."},{"label":"copper","name":"Copper","commodity":"Refined copper cathodes","title_code":"740311","flags":["clean_pair"],"problem":{"leader":"CL","leader_name":"Chile","leader_share":21.2,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"integrated (endowment+capability)","moat_note":"Chile both mines AND refines it — the one case where ore access is a real lever, alongside the refining capability.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"capability-adjacency","strong":true,"desc":"product-space density with the leader removed -- latent capability to stand up refining, not just present output","candidates":[{"iso":"PL","name":"Poland","score":0.469,"mines":2,"refines":2},{"iso":"US","name":"USA","score":0.294,"mines":5,"refines":3},{"iso":"ID","name":"Indonesia","score":0.223,"mines":4,"refines":1},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","score":0.209,"mines":2,"refines":1},{"iso":"MX","name":"Mexico","score":0.182,"mines":3,"refines":1}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":null,"iea":null,"gap":true,"gap_kind":"diffuse"},"verdict":"Chile holds ~21% of refined supply; capability-adjacent alternatives: Poland, USA; not a single-country chokepoint — buildout not the constraint."},{"label":"phosphate","name":"Phosphate","commodity":"Phosphate rock","title_code":"251010","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"MA","leader_name":"Morocco","leader_share":18.8,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"Morocco leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"JO","name":"Jordan","score":25.1},{"iso":"PE","name":"Peru","score":17.4}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":null,"iea":null,"gap":true,"gap_kind":"diffuse"},"verdict":"Morocco holds ~19% of refined supply; current alternatives: Jordan, Peru; not a single-country chokepoint — buildout not the constraint."},{"label":"vanadium","name":"Vanadium","commodity":"Ferro-vanadium","title_code":"720292","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":17.3,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"China leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"AT","name":"Austria","score":24.3},{"iso":"ZA","name":"South Africa","score":10.9},{"iso":"CZ","name":"Czechia","score":10.0}]},"who_is":{"projects":[{"name":"Largo — Maracás Menchen","iso":"BR","stage":"mine + refine","status":"operating (primary V outside China/Russia)"},{"name":"Australian Vanadium — Gabanintha","iso":"AU","stage":"mine + refine","status":"financed; government-backed"},{"name":"Vecco — Julia Creek","iso":"AU","stage":"mine + refine","status":"Queensland-backed vanadium supply chain"}],"forward":null,"iea":"Most vanadium is a steel-slag byproduct in China/Russia; primary and recycled vanadium outside them is driven by both steel and grid-scale flow batteries.","gap":false,"gap_kind":null},"verdict":"China holds ~17% of refined supply; current alternatives: Austria, South Africa; being built: Largo, Australian Vanadium."},{"label":"strontium","name":"Strontium","commodity":"Strontium carbonate","title_code":"283692","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_share":7.2,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"China leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","score":55.7},{"iso":"MX","name":"Mexico","score":26.0},{"iso":"ES","name":"Spain","score":6.9}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":null,"iea":null,"gap":true,"gap_kind":"diffuse"},"verdict":"China holds ~7% of refined supply; current alternatives: Germany, Mexico; not a single-country chokepoint — buildout not the constraint."},{"label":"beryllium","name":"Beryllium","commodity":"Beryllium, unwrought","title_code":"811212","flags":["refined_only"],"problem":{"leader":"US","leader_name":"USA","leader_share":3.6,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"refining capability","moat_note":"USA leads the refining stage; the concentration is in processing capacity, not the mine.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":"current-share","strong":false,"desc":"fallback exporters from the shock model (present output, not latent capability)","candidates":[{"iso":"KZ","name":"Kazakhstan","score":81.0},{"iso":"GB","name":"United Kingdom","score":10.7},{"iso":"FR","name":"France","score":1.8}]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":null,"iea":null,"gap":true,"gap_kind":"diffuse"},"verdict":"USA holds ~4% of refined supply; current alternatives: Kazakhstan, United Kingdom; not a single-country chokepoint — buildout not the constraint."},{"label":"hafnium","name":"Hafnium","commodity":"Hafnium, unwrought","title_code":"811231","flags":["byproduct"],"problem":{"leader":"FR","leader_name":"France","leader_share":0.0,"stage_noun":"refined","moat_type":"by-product capability","moat_note":"France extracts it as a by-product of a domestic host metal at a scale no one else recovers. There is no ore stream to redirect — substitution means new by-product recovery lines on someone else’s host.","hhi":null,"spof":false,"shared":false},"who_could":{"method":null,"strong":false,"desc":"no alternative-supplier signal in public data -- a genuine chokepoint OR a sourcing gap","candidates":[]},"who_is":{"projects":[],"forward":null,"iea":null,"gap":true,"gap_kind":"diffuse"},"verdict":"no clear alternative surfaced; not a single-country chokepoint — buildout not the constraint."}]}