{"year":2024,"kappas":[2,3,5],"summary":{"n":31,"by_kind":{"uncoverable":4,"backfire":8,"shifts":2,"diversifies":17},"uncoverable2x":4,"backfire":8},"centroids":{"IE":[53.41291,-8.24389],"AE":[23.424076,53.847818],"VN":[14.058324,108.277199],"ID":[-0.789275,113.921327],"TZ":[-6.369028,34.888822],"CA":[56.130366,-106.346771],"IN":[20.593684,78.96288],"SA":[23.885942,45.079162],"OM":[21.512583,55.923255],"PL":[51.919438,19.145136],"TG":[8.619543,0.824782],"GY":[4.860416,-58.93018],"CO":[4.570868,-74.297333],"SV":[13.794185,-88.89653],"GE":[42.315407,43.356892],"NO":[60.472024,8.468946],"PT":[39.399872,-8.224454],"KE":[-0.023559,37.906193],"HR":[45.1,15.2],"NZ":[-40.900557,174.885971],"RS":[44.016521,21.005859],"AT":[47.516231,14.550072],"PK":[30.375321,69.345116],"IR":[32.427908,53.688046],"ZM":[-13.133897,27.849332],"BO":[-16.290154,-63.588653],"DE":[51.165691,10.451526],"TR":[38.963745,35.243322],"LV":[56.879635,24.603189],"DO":[18.735693,-70.162651],"MX":[23.634501,-102.552784],"JM":[18.109581,-77.297508],"QA":[25.354826,51.183884],"CG":[-0.228021,15.827659],"BH":[25.930414,50.637772],"CD":[-4.038333,21.758664],"GR":[39.074208,21.824312],"NL":[52.132633,5.291266],"NG":[9.081999,8.675277],"PE":[-9.189967,-75.015152],"MW":[-13.254308,34.301525],"MA":[31.791702,-7.09262],"MK":[41.608635,21.745275],"IL":[31.046051,34.851612],"IT":[41.87194,12.56738],"BE":[50.503887,4.469936],"DK":[56.26392,9.501785],"ES":[40.463667,-3.74922],"MG":[-18.766947,46.869107],"TJ":[38.861034,71.276093],"MZ":[-18.665695,35.529562],"LU":[49.815273,6.129583],"SN":[14.497401,-14.452362],"KW":[29.31166,47.481766],"CN":[35.86166,104.195397],"KR":[35.907757,127.766922],"CL":[-35.675147,-71.542969],"LB":[33.854721,35.862285],"BN":[4.535277,114.727669],"JO":[30.585164,36.238414],"HU":[47.162494,19.503304],"LA":[19.85627,102.495496],"US":[37.09024,-95.712891],"AM":[40.069099,45.038189],"NC":[-20.904305,165.618042],"UA":[48.379433,31.16558],"MY":[4.210484,101.975766],"CZ":[49.817492,15.472962],"KZ":[48.019573,66.923684],"EE":[58.595272,25.013607],"FI":[61.92411,25.748151],"SK":[48.669026,19.699024],"NR":[-0.522778,166.931503],"CH":[46.818188,8.227512],"TH":[15.870032,100.992541],"AR":[-38.416097,-63.616672],"SY":[34.802075,38.996815],"AU":[-25.274398,133.775136],"MN":[46.862496,103.846656],"DZ":[28.033886,1.659626],"GB":[55.378051,-3.435973],"FR":[46.227638,2.213749],"JP":[36.204824,138.252924],"EG":[26.820553,30.802498],"LK":[7.873054,80.771797],"SE":[60.128161,18.643501],"HK":[22.396428,114.109497],"RU":[61.52401,105.318756],"IS":[64.963051,-19.020835],"PH":[12.879721,121.774017],"BG":[42.733883,25.48583],"BD":[23.684994,90.356331],"SG":[1.352083,103.819836],"TN":[33.886917,9.537499],"SI":[46.151241,14.995463],"BR":[-14.235004,-51.92528],"ZA":[-30.559482,22.937506],"MM":[21.913965,95.956223]},"note":"Shock = loss of the leader’s EXPORTS (the redirectable supply). Export-based by construction: a domestic-consuming refiner’s output was never available to importers. Coverage assumes survivors can scale exports up to kappa× current; shared HS codes (gallium/germanium 811292) mix metals, so those rows are a basket.","materials":{"magnets":{"label":"magnets","name":"Magnets","code":"850511","flags":["magnet"],"shared":false,"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_export_share":0.626,"stress_factor":2.7,"hhi_before":0.409,"hhi_after":0.126,"new_leader":"JP","new_leader_name":"Japan","new_leader_share":0.232,"coverage":{"2":0.598,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.54,"freed_usd":3046710.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":513918.501,"reliance":0.826},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":366341.101,"reliance":0.755},{"iso":"VN","name":"Vietnam","lost_usd":341305.944,"reliance":0.894},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":268850.565,"reliance":0.875},{"iso":"MX","name":"Mexico","lost_usd":193656.336,"reliance":0.796},{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":162786.289,"reliance":0.851}],"before":[{"to":"DE","v":513918.501},{"to":"US","v":366341.101},{"to":"VN","v":341305.944},{"to":"KR","v":268850.565},{"to":"MX","v":193656.336},{"to":"IN","v":162786.289},{"to":"JP","v":156879.57},{"to":"PL","v":101274.568},{"to":"TH","v":86014.068},{"to":"FR","v":84493.944},{"to":"IT","v":71537.236},{"to":"HU","v":71399.01},{"to":"MY","v":49042.604},{"to":"CH","v":45509.08}],"after":[{"f":"JP","t":"US","v":184267.8258863578},{"f":"JP","t":"KR","v":134738.6325308048},{"f":"JP","t":"MX","v":121352.21455299726},{"f":"PH","t":"VN","v":103440.42308930999},{"f":"PH","t":"KR","v":78817.61278908004},{"f":"VN","t":"IN","v":62601.934954009754},{"f":"VN","t":"TH","v":39364.35350922784},{"f":"VN","t":"DE","v":34714.32995245054},{"f":"PH","t":"IN","v":34567.578390173665},{"f":"CH","t":"DE","v":34266.202667004734},{"f":"JP","t":"DE","v":33695.21115260476},{"f":"NL","t":"DE","v":31617.501293764795},{"f":"US","t":"MX","v":30383.779614790103},{"f":"PH","t":"DE","v":30010.742094247005},{"f":"PH","t":"US","v":26953.283094084774},{"f":"DE","t":"FR","v":23024.600359061715},{"f":"DE","t":"PL","v":22455.623761996263},{"f":"MY","t":"IN","v":21797.782935677827},{"f":"PH","t":"TH","v":21324.799093848167},{"f":"JP","t":"RU","v":21293.576242167313},{"f":"TH","t":"IN","v":20928.055930273535},{"f":"VN","t":"KR","v":20794.767977267784},{"f":"PH","t":"MX","v":20635.953872541646},{"f":"PH","t":"JP","v":18779.111405541793},{"f":"MY","t":"VN","v":16437.927526598145},{"f":"GB","t":"DE","v":16244.644734799636}],"n_exporters":143,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing China genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.41→0.13); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~3+×."},"magnesium":{"label":"magnesium","name":"Magnesium","code":"810411","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_export_share":0.713,"stress_factor":3.5,"hhi_before":0.534,"hhi_after":0.321,"new_leader":"IL","new_leader_name":"Israel","new_leader_share":0.525,"coverage":{"2":0.403,"3":0.807,"5":1.0},"friction":0.7,"freed_usd":621619.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":70874.24,"reliance":0.986},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":57834.549,"reliance":0.999},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":54207.997,"reliance":0.98},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","lost_usd":50676.1,"reliance":0.998},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":45510.05,"reliance":0.833},{"iso":"NO","name":"Norway","lost_usd":40362.503,"reliance":0.908}],"before":[{"to":"IN","v":70874.24},{"to":"KR","v":57834.549},{"to":"JP","v":54207.997},{"to":"CA","v":50676.1},{"to":"DE","v":45510.05},{"to":"NO","v":40362.503},{"to":"AE","v":39109.459},{"to":"TR","v":23385.429},{"to":"BH","v":21710.383},{"to":"NL","v":17690.703},{"to":"SA","v":17579.123},{"to":"GR","v":16055.416},{"to":"ZA","v":11950.588},{"to":"FR","v":11343.978}],"after":[{"f":"IL","t":"IN","v":55386.96789999981},{"f":"IL","t":"KR","v":35045.67208112246},{"f":"IL","t":"AE","v":33412.32740351397},{"f":"IL","t":"JP","v":30307.35291360754},{"f":"NL","t":"CA","v":18825.02516966346},{"f":"IL","t":"BH","v":18528.28418319667},{"f":"IL","t":"SA","v":15469.455097002228},{"f":"NL","t":"NO","v":14663.577544855194},{"f":"IL","t":"TR","v":14499.000247167129},{"f":"NL","t":"DE","v":13930.240023566563},{"f":"TR","t":"KR","v":13517.67192801181},{"f":"TR","t":"JP","v":12445.599970266903},{"f":"IL","t":"DE","v":12178.479084279492},{"f":"TR","t":"IN","v":11790.995867427828},{"f":"IL","t":"GR","v":10632.718046548212},{"f":"IL","t":"ZA","v":10394.038524885973},{"f":"IL","t":"NO","v":10219.175506466003},{"f":"IL","t":"CA","v":9320.19996171563},{"f":"IL","t":"TH","v":7637.49520715268},{"f":"IL","t":"RU","v":5587.166316691523},{"f":"TR","t":"DE","v":5480.9015719842},{"f":"IL","t":"QA","v":5426.286141716992},{"f":"TR","t":"NO","v":5238.547555529246},{"f":"IL","t":"MY","v":5222.743417543473},{"f":"TR","t":"AE","v":5206.320045575637},{"f":"IL","t":"VN","v":5168.936132636408}],"n_exporters":50,"kind":"uncoverable","verdict":"Structurally hard to cover: doubling every other exporter meets only 40% of China’s lost exports; full coverage needs a 5× scale-up of every other exporter."},"germanium":{"label":"germanium","name":"Germanium","code":"811292","flags":["shared_refined","byproduct"],"shared":true,"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_export_share":0.315,"stress_factor":1.5,"hhi_before":0.158,"hhi_after":0.125,"new_leader":"DE","new_leader_name":"Germany","new_leader_share":0.275,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.51,"freed_usd":319312.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":92445.757,"reliance":0.937},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":63684.249,"reliance":0.197},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":39559.716,"reliance":0.373},{"iso":"GB","name":"United Kingdom","lost_usd":29543.482,"reliance":0.435},{"iso":"HK","name":"Hong Kong","lost_usd":22145.308,"reliance":0.326},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","lost_usd":21903.238,"reliance":0.696}],"before":[{"to":"KR","v":92445.757},{"to":"US","v":63684.249},{"to":"DE","v":39559.716},{"to":"GB","v":29543.482},{"to":"HK","v":22145.308},{"to":"CA","v":21903.238},{"to":"JP","v":16149.339},{"to":"NL","v":8263.379},{"to":"TH","v":6644.801},{"to":"KZ","v":5674.232},{"to":"FR","v":3769.585},{"to":"BE","v":3414.989},{"to":"MY","v":2267.13},{"to":"ES","v":950.219}],"after":[{"f":"BR","t":"US","v":23770.873623888147},{"f":"DE","t":"KR","v":21583.55285717488},{"f":"SG","t":"KR","v":17863.904844281995},{"f":"SG","t":"HK","v":14837.68949592314},{"f":"DE","t":"GB","v":14113.611509954091},{"f":"EE","t":"KR","v":8585.950464144718},{"f":"JP","t":"KR","v":7640.790982827209},{"f":"DE","t":"NL","v":5038.067714926414},{"f":"SG","t":"TH","v":4814.208505522091},{"f":"DE","t":"JP","v":3296.109741145223},{"f":"CA","t":"US","v":3260.2597795251154},{"f":"FR","t":"GB","v":3106.2354498359095},{"f":"FR","t":"DE","v":2958.9986102542452},{"f":"DE","t":"KZ","v":2852.186937282095},{"f":"GB","t":"KR","v":2837.837098413278},{"f":"MY","t":"KR","v":2811.1621856827946},{"f":"DE","t":"CA","v":2500.0701117950316},{"f":"MY","t":"HK","v":2385.165653829206},{"f":"BE","t":"DE","v":2258.985018846264},{"f":"BE","t":"GB","v":2243.3795236710475},{"f":"SG","t":"JP","v":2222.2255640968247},{"f":"FR","t":"KR","v":2220.799431079007},{"f":"CL","t":"US","v":2135.065702114631},{"f":"DE","t":"BE","v":1990.8317084958928},{"f":"DE","t":"US","v":1883.2638322031257},{"f":"SG","t":"MY","v":1855.9289322053278}],"n_exporters":58,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing China genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.16→0.12); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×."},"graphite":{"label":"graphite","name":"Graphite","code":"250490","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_export_share":0.361,"stress_factor":1.6,"hhi_before":0.215,"hhi_after":0.207,"new_leader":"TZ","new_leader_name":"Tanzania","new_leader_share":0.416,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":1.26,"freed_usd":18640.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":7876.414,"reliance":0.954},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":4986.671,"reliance":0.812},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","lost_usd":2183.844,"reliance":0.959},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":1165.784,"reliance":0.946},{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":534.298,"reliance":0.154},{"iso":"ID","name":"Indonesia","lost_usd":389.222,"reliance":0.787}],"before":[{"to":"JP","v":7876.414},{"to":"US","v":4986.671},{"to":"CA","v":2183.844},{"to":"KR","v":1165.784},{"to":"IN","v":534.298},{"to":"ID","v":389.222},{"to":"GB","v":336.045},{"to":"BE","v":118.921},{"to":"NL","v":108.112},{"to":"CO","v":105.183},{"to":"NG","v":86.885},{"to":"BR","v":85.664},{"to":"TH","v":69.401},{"to":"PL","v":61.502}],"after":[{"f":"TZ","t":"JP","v":5182.510617216318},{"f":"MG","t":"JP","v":1081.7418289162},{"f":"BR","t":"US","v":1002.5349725142329},{"f":"TZ","t":"KR","v":814.7130997592074},{"f":"DE","t":"CA","v":714.2348167176652},{"f":"DE","t":"US","v":701.1659637052582},{"f":"ES","t":"US","v":620.6028013502932},{"f":"TZ","t":"IN","v":425.0729708121241},{"f":"TZ","t":"US","v":404.2388123174244},{"f":"ES","t":"CA","v":352.2784785780322},{"f":"GB","t":"US","v":338.07157912894246},{"f":"GB","t":"CA","v":315.28058991099863},{"f":"LK","t":"JP","v":273.89878618788094},{"f":"DE","t":"JP","v":256.9498628918779},{"f":"TZ","t":"ID","v":232.22663605081627},{"f":"TZ","t":"CA","v":211.9791537014922},{"f":"MG","t":"KR","v":164.3700125824433},{"f":"FR","t":"US","v":158.646844199142},{"f":"AE","t":"JP","v":146.43813217772467},{"f":"MX","t":"US","v":137.5359582783121},{"f":"IN","t":"JP","v":134.07895279928363},{"f":"MG","t":"ID","v":124.71155419594324},{"f":"PL","t":"CA","v":124.17448185444589},{"f":"DE","t":"GB","v":121.36880236158544},{"f":"FR","t":"CA","v":121.21967338868642},{"f":"PL","t":"US","v":103.3885098239151}],"n_exporters":85,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing China genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.21→0.21); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×."},"gallium":{"label":"gallium","name":"Gallium","code":"811292","flags":["shared_refined","byproduct"],"shared":true,"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_export_share":0.315,"stress_factor":1.5,"hhi_before":0.158,"hhi_after":0.125,"new_leader":"DE","new_leader_name":"Germany","new_leader_share":0.275,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.51,"freed_usd":319312.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":92445.757,"reliance":0.937},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":63684.249,"reliance":0.197},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":39559.716,"reliance":0.373},{"iso":"GB","name":"United Kingdom","lost_usd":29543.482,"reliance":0.435},{"iso":"HK","name":"Hong Kong","lost_usd":22145.308,"reliance":0.326},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","lost_usd":21903.238,"reliance":0.696}],"before":[{"to":"KR","v":92445.757},{"to":"US","v":63684.249},{"to":"DE","v":39559.716},{"to":"GB","v":29543.482},{"to":"HK","v":22145.308},{"to":"CA","v":21903.238},{"to":"JP","v":16149.339},{"to":"NL","v":8263.379},{"to":"TH","v":6644.801},{"to":"KZ","v":5674.232},{"to":"FR","v":3769.585},{"to":"BE","v":3414.989},{"to":"MY","v":2267.13},{"to":"ES","v":950.219}],"after":[{"f":"BR","t":"US","v":23770.873623888147},{"f":"DE","t":"KR","v":21583.55285717488},{"f":"SG","t":"KR","v":17863.904844281995},{"f":"SG","t":"HK","v":14837.68949592314},{"f":"DE","t":"GB","v":14113.611509954091},{"f":"EE","t":"KR","v":8585.950464144718},{"f":"JP","t":"KR","v":7640.790982827209},{"f":"DE","t":"NL","v":5038.067714926414},{"f":"SG","t":"TH","v":4814.208505522091},{"f":"DE","t":"JP","v":3296.109741145223},{"f":"CA","t":"US","v":3260.2597795251154},{"f":"FR","t":"GB","v":3106.2354498359095},{"f":"FR","t":"DE","v":2958.9986102542452},{"f":"DE","t":"KZ","v":2852.186937282095},{"f":"GB","t":"KR","v":2837.837098413278},{"f":"MY","t":"KR","v":2811.1621856827946},{"f":"DE","t":"CA","v":2500.0701117950316},{"f":"MY","t":"HK","v":2385.165653829206},{"f":"BE","t":"DE","v":2258.985018846264},{"f":"BE","t":"GB","v":2243.3795236710475},{"f":"SG","t":"JP","v":2222.2255640968247},{"f":"FR","t":"KR","v":2220.799431079007},{"f":"CL","t":"US","v":2135.065702114631},{"f":"DE","t":"BE","v":1990.8317084958928},{"f":"DE","t":"US","v":1883.2638322031257},{"f":"SG","t":"MY","v":1855.9289322053278}],"n_exporters":58,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing China genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.16→0.12); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×."},"tungsten":{"label":"tungsten","name":"Tungsten","code":"810194","flags":["clean_pair"],"shared":false,"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_export_share":0.55,"stress_factor":2.2,"hhi_before":0.329,"hhi_after":0.128,"new_leader":"PH","new_leader_name":"Philippines","new_leader_share":0.214,"coverage":{"2":0.817,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.52,"freed_usd":151077.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":55211.751,"reliance":0.954},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":42056.007,"reliance":0.567},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":7949.919,"reliance":0.923},{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":7252.448,"reliance":0.948},{"iso":"NL","name":"Netherlands","lost_usd":7175.0560000000005,"reliance":0.869},{"iso":"KZ","name":"Kazakhstan","lost_usd":5786.015,"reliance":0.992}],"before":[{"to":"JP","v":55211.751},{"to":"US","v":42056.007},{"to":"KR","v":7949.919},{"to":"IN","v":7252.448},{"to":"NL","v":7175.0560000000005},{"to":"KZ","v":5786.015},{"to":"GB","v":4639.817},{"to":"DE","v":3901.073},{"to":"DK","v":2952.521},{"to":"RU","v":2041.847},{"to":"BE","v":1975.983},{"to":"CA","v":1433.4660000000001},{"to":"AR","v":1356.2040000000002},{"to":"AU","v":1059.734}],"after":[{"f":"PH","t":"JP","v":26495.73068728277},{"f":"VN","t":"JP","v":16842.38308865256},{"f":"DE","t":"US","v":11473.730066635064},{"f":"GB","t":"US","v":6203.694368453981},{"f":"DE","t":"NL","v":4587.682394722961},{"f":"CA","t":"US","v":4150.425599301626},{"f":"KR","t":"JP","v":3714.90537710018},{"f":"PH","t":"KR","v":3233.210573503182},{"f":"NL","t":"US","v":3001.5985609673444},{"f":"VN","t":"KR","v":2830.5179044810825},{"f":"IN","t":"KZ","v":2608.690838017783},{"f":"DE","t":"GB","v":2335.492400405574},{"f":"HK","t":"JP","v":2292.2490494592857},{"f":"LA","t":"JP","v":2015.640562315089},{"f":"DE","t":"DK","v":2006.8728401671888},{"f":"VN","t":"KZ","v":1571.290605520245},{"f":"DE","t":"BE","v":1266.5605540753904},{"f":"SG","t":"JP","v":1211.1807217576263},{"f":"VN","t":"IN","v":1082.4744715747513},{"f":"VN","t":"RU","v":858.7408059939108},{"f":"PH","t":"US","v":765.6238796033156},{"f":"ES","t":"US","v":716.450319003285},{"f":"GB","t":"NL","v":630.736758593107},{"f":"NL","t":"GB","v":611.3112244543292},{"f":"VN","t":"US","v":604.379763157431},{"f":"BE","t":"US","v":594.3626291074141}],"n_exporters":49,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing China genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.33→0.13); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~3+×."},"cobalt":{"label":"cobalt","name":"Cobalt","code":"282200","flags":["clean_pair"],"shared":false,"leader":"FI","leader_name":"Finland","leader_export_share":0.287,"stress_factor":1.4,"hhi_before":0.182,"hhi_after":0.195,"new_leader":"CN","new_leader_name":"China","new_leader_share":0.266,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":1.32,"freed_usd":139856.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"BE","name":"Belgium","lost_usd":56000.935,"reliance":0.91},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":22043.552,"reliance":0.827},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":20369.636,"reliance":0.526},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":11361.582,"reliance":0.147},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":7647.732,"reliance":0.506},{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":6023.083,"reliance":0.621}],"before":[{"to":"BE","v":56000.935},{"to":"DE","v":22043.552},{"to":"US","v":20369.636},{"to":"KR","v":11361.582},{"to":"JP","v":7647.732},{"to":"IN","v":6023.083},{"to":"NL","v":3803.429},{"to":"IT","v":2993.625},{"to":"TR","v":2967.118},{"to":"BR","v":2028.78},{"to":"GB","v":1550.852},{"to":"CN","v":619.071},{"to":"FR","v":452.213},{"to":"EG","v":369.195}],"after":[{"f":"ZM","t":"BE","v":15451.776777871364},{"f":"CD","t":"BE","v":13800.69152852721},{"f":"CN","t":"KR","v":10858.901120127812},{"f":"CN","t":"US","v":8187.297502715182},{"f":"CN","t":"JP","v":7217.318823848029},{"f":"ZM","t":"DE","v":6942.489768755019},{"f":"CD","t":"DE","v":5993.344028669546},{"f":"BE","t":"DE","v":4395.28692630886},{"f":"CN","t":"IN","v":4379.863959252749},{"f":"ZM","t":"US","v":3767.232459333513},{"f":"CD","t":"US","v":3371.585809418833},{"f":"GB","t":"BE","v":3353.8677192064138},{"f":"CN","t":"BE","v":2842.738853928283},{"f":"CN","t":"DE","v":1770.3290425675268},{"f":"ZM","t":"TR","v":1537.0734802337372},{"f":"ZM","t":"IT","v":1384.7291172593502},{"f":"BE","t":"US","v":1245.7328798817307},{"f":"CD","t":"IT","v":1208.8931217678057},{"f":"GB","t":"US","v":1159.2383013483998},{"f":"DE","t":"BE","v":1081.1672069239617},{"f":"BE","t":"NL","v":1044.3447968385472},{"f":"GB","t":"DE","v":1035.7468015124136},{"f":"CD","t":"TR","v":1026.923039431124},{"f":"ZM","t":"NL","v":1020.4145191566349},{"f":"CD","t":"NL","v":903.1712115006154},{"f":"ZM","t":"BR","v":768.0457439846125}],"n_exporters":57,"kind":"backfire","verdict":"Diversification backfires — removing Finland hands the chokepoint to China and concentration RISES (HHI 0.18→0.20). The runner-up is the real problem. The spare capacity also sits far from the stranded buyers — reshuffled supply travels ~1.3× farther than Finland’s current flows."},"niobium":{"label":"niobium","name":"Niobium","code":"720293","flags":["shared_ore"],"shared":false,"leader":"BR","leader_name":"Brazil","leader_export_share":0.762,"stress_factor":4.2,"hhi_before":0.596,"hhi_after":0.27,"new_leader":"CA","new_leader_name":"Canada","new_leader_share":0.386,"coverage":{"2":0.312,"3":0.624,"5":1.0},"friction":0.31,"freed_usd":2618692.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":1057521.508,"reliance":0.96},{"iso":"NL","name":"Netherlands","lost_usd":461638.353,"reliance":0.869},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":198708.115,"reliance":0.924},{"iso":"SG","name":"Singapore","lost_usd":171062.611,"reliance":0.965},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":170138.392,"reliance":0.974},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":160626.869,"reliance":0.581}],"before":[{"to":"CN","v":1057521.508},{"to":"NL","v":461638.353},{"to":"KR","v":198708.115},{"to":"SG","v":171062.611},{"to":"JP","v":170138.392},{"to":"US","v":160626.869},{"to":"IN","v":50586.87},{"to":"FI","v":44372.646},{"to":"FR","v":36067.147},{"to":"TR","v":31528.302},{"to":"AT","v":27110.62},{"to":"IT","v":22367.675},{"to":"CA","v":21695.444},{"to":"GB","v":17000.407}],"after":[{"f":"CA","t":"CN","v":485322.72523639374},{"f":"NL","t":"CN","v":209519.5778233734},{"f":"CA","t":"KR","v":172181.9593499507},{"f":"CA","t":"JP","v":161522.97377708304},{"f":"CA","t":"US","v":123267.29395402006},{"f":"MY","t":"SG","v":31368.809338789248},{"f":"NL","t":"FI","v":30803.470551954724},{"f":"NL","t":"FR","v":29948.36881139156},{"f":"SG","t":"CN","v":27691.14908841334},{"f":"SE","t":"CN","v":24476.665223266704},{"f":"TR","t":"CN","v":22524.97939818978},{"f":"NL","t":"AT","v":21601.876798463956},{"f":"NL","t":"IN","v":20286.12029414685},{"f":"NL","t":"TR","v":18544.060970245115},{"f":"NL","t":"IT","v":17489.951708807595},{"f":"NL","t":"GB","v":14035.431831683647},{"f":"MY","t":"CN","v":12903.26706645324},{"f":"CA","t":"MX","v":12523.420311469346},{"f":"NL","t":"CH","v":11742.999229823505},{"f":"DE","t":"NL","v":11717.00363776891},{"f":"NL","t":"SK","v":11577.015860496445},{"f":"DE","t":"CN","v":11323.630638412662},{"f":"BE","t":"NL","v":11061.389746157953},{"f":"CA","t":"NL","v":9750.904851015684},{"f":"NL","t":"KR","v":9263.668161899373},{"f":"NL","t":"ZA","v":9106.418075497348}],"n_exporters":44,"kind":"uncoverable","verdict":"Structurally hard to cover: doubling every other exporter meets only 31% of Brazil’s lost exports; full coverage needs a 5× scale-up of every other exporter."},"boron":{"label":"boron","name":"Boron","code":"252800","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"TR","leader_name":"Turkey","leader_export_share":0.562,"stress_factor":2.3,"hhi_before":0.376,"hhi_after":0.316,"new_leader":"BO","new_leader_name":"Bolivia","new_leader_share":0.525,"coverage":{"2":0.78,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":2.15,"freed_usd":251824.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":104014.37,"reliance":0.927},{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":41700.836,"reliance":0.865},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":19259.433,"reliance":0.711},{"iso":"AT","name":"Austria","lost_usd":11017.775,"reliance":0.992},{"iso":"NL","name":"Netherlands","lost_usd":6795.091,"reliance":0.999},{"iso":"CZ","name":"Czech Republic","lost_usd":6579.417,"reliance":0.479}],"before":[{"to":"CN","v":104014.37},{"to":"IN","v":41700.836},{"to":"US","v":19259.433},{"to":"AT","v":11017.775},{"to":"NL","v":6795.091},{"to":"CZ","v":6579.417},{"to":"BR","v":6161.639},{"to":"JP","v":5589.124},{"to":"ES","v":5494.283},{"to":"RU","v":5185.829},{"to":"SK","v":4755.691},{"to":"MY","v":4608.388},{"to":"KR","v":3722.525},{"to":"MX","v":3112.5}],"after":[{"f":"BO","t":"CN","v":51400.1775703215},{"f":"AR","t":"IN","v":16394.628270576344},{"f":"BO","t":"IN","v":15999.364245139257},{"f":"BO","t":"US","v":13580.658056438091},{"f":"AR","t":"CN","v":11756.551456395246},{"f":"AT","t":"CN","v":11081.336362384365},{"f":"BO","t":"AT","v":6608.117517319719},{"f":"LU","t":"CN","v":5471.0427448425935},{"f":"BO","t":"BR","v":4856.612375336897},{"f":"BO","t":"NL","v":4624.360801218303},{"f":"CL","t":"IN","v":4425.015379667825},{"f":"BO","t":"ES","v":4214.555687993842},{"f":"BO","t":"CZ","v":3964.9246633297034},{"f":"BO","t":"RU","v":3478.2145409653185},{"f":"CL","t":"CN","v":3283.7177069165045},{"f":"BO","t":"JP","v":2888.7855311032563},{"f":"BO","t":"SK","v":2812.2673758995916},{"f":"AR","t":"MY","v":2716.2996293044685},{"f":"ES","t":"CN","v":2401.5765087830923},{"f":"PE","t":"CN","v":2373.0246514365144},{"f":"BO","t":"MX","v":2161.5507509877807},{"f":"US","t":"CN","v":1986.7328176224796},{"f":"BO","t":"KR","v":1970.3569623690419},{"f":"NL","t":"CN","v":1839.9811749172204},{"f":"FI","t":"CN","v":1781.839136261707},{"f":"BO","t":"EG","v":1705.849512332053}],"n_exporters":59,"kind":"shifts","verdict":"Removing Turkey only shifts the chokepoint to Bolivia — still concentrated (HHI 0.38→0.32); covered only by a 3× scale-up. The spare capacity also sits far from the stranded buyers — reshuffled supply travels ~2.1× farther than Turkey’s current flows."},"lithium":{"label":"lithium","name":"Lithium","code":"283691","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"CL","leader_name":"Chile","leader_export_share":0.745,"stress_factor":3.9,"hhi_before":0.588,"hhi_after":0.495,"new_leader":"AR","new_leader_name":"Argentina","new_leader_share":0.694,"coverage":{"2":0.342,"3":0.683,"5":1.0},"friction":0.75,"freed_usd":2810748.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":2027527.918,"reliance":0.8},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":318558.271,"reliance":0.751},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":111459.569,"reliance":0.571},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":108342.787,"reliance":0.503},{"iso":"NL","name":"Netherlands","lost_usd":98879.433,"reliance":0.895},{"iso":"BE","name":"Belgium","lost_usd":70382.788,"reliance":0.928}],"before":[{"to":"CN","v":2027527.918},{"to":"KR","v":318558.271},{"to":"US","v":111459.569},{"to":"JP","v":108342.787},{"to":"NL","v":98879.433},{"to":"BE","v":70382.788},{"to":"GB","v":30951.965},{"to":"DE","v":20866.77},{"to":"FR","v":9748.951},{"to":"CA","v":5634.383},{"to":"IN","v":3464.153},{"to":"VN","v":1268.017},{"to":"PL","v":852.608},{"to":"AU","v":775.902}],"after":[{"f":"AR","t":"CN","v":1388714.449394411},{"f":"AR","t":"KR","v":182211.77001569243},{"f":"DE","t":"CN","v":120390.82480285144},{"f":"AR","t":"US","v":96835.09995625823},{"f":"AR","t":"JP","v":92623.47216491011},{"f":"KR","t":"CN","v":90835.54498992028},{"f":"AR","t":"NL","v":74144.36407963798},{"f":"GB","t":"CN","v":59743.69895731288},{"f":"NL","t":"CN","v":58274.527936700244},{"f":"AR","t":"BE","v":54997.60514906421},{"f":"BO","t":"CN","v":28950.375001898465},{"f":"AR","t":"GB","v":24688.50839212651},{"f":"US","t":"CN","v":23351.28442031537},{"f":"FR","t":"CN","v":18777.600881082133},{"f":"BE","t":"CN","v":16168.376474891596},{"f":"AR","t":"DE","v":15040.64784103363},{"f":"IN","t":"CN","v":11474.78885427631},{"f":"BR","t":"CN","v":9855.42811156338},{"f":"KR","t":"JP","v":8585.099256768568},{"f":"AR","t":"FR","v":8380.585587811356},{"f":"US","t":"KR","v":8166.154179145833},{"f":"IT","t":"CN","v":7277.922090640913},{"f":"DE","t":"NL","v":6549.968716397575},{"f":"AR","t":"CA","v":4880.255995274974},{"f":"BO","t":"US","v":4608.760823725739},{"f":"DE","t":"KR","v":4380.877846486395}],"n_exporters":56,"kind":"uncoverable","verdict":"Structurally hard to cover: doubling every other exporter meets only 34% of Chile’s lost exports; full coverage needs a 5× scale-up of every other exporter."},"antimony":{"label":"antimony","name":"Antimony","code":"811010","flags":["clean_pair"],"shared":false,"leader":"TJ","leader_name":"Tajikistan","leader_export_share":0.313,"stress_factor":1.5,"hhi_before":0.17,"hhi_after":0.153,"new_leader":"VN","new_leader_name":"Vietnam","new_leader_share":0.232,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":1.45,"freed_usd":240272.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"FR","name":"France","lost_usd":111108.435,"reliance":0.821},{"iso":"BE","name":"Belgium","lost_usd":110314.805,"reliance":0.827},{"iso":"ES","name":"Spain","lost_usd":8892.117,"reliance":0.38},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":3459.498,"reliance":0.04},{"iso":"BR","name":"Brazil","lost_usd":1894.565,"reliance":0.211},{"iso":"CZ","name":"Czech Republic","lost_usd":1215.999,"reliance":0.864}],"before":[{"to":"FR","v":111108.435},{"to":"BE","v":110314.805},{"to":"ES","v":8892.117},{"to":"US","v":3459.498},{"to":"BR","v":1894.565},{"to":"CZ","v":1215.999},{"to":"TR","v":866.982},{"to":"NL","v":624.223},{"to":"MK","v":483.469},{"to":"GB","v":457.42},{"to":"DE","v":353.125},{"to":"PL","v":171.869},{"to":"PE","v":120.182},{"to":"TN","v":95.618}],"after":[{"f":"VN","t":"BE","v":26657.74125136213},{"f":"VN","t":"FR","v":25987.14044735198},{"f":"TH","t":"FR","v":22889.232758837516},{"f":"TH","t":"BE","v":22787.81475993359},{"f":"CN","t":"BE","v":20012.185255132932},{"f":"MM","t":"FR","v":18369.034493101495},{"f":"MM","t":"BE","v":18363.259768194064},{"f":"CN","t":"FR","v":18090.38870487319},{"f":"IN","t":"FR","v":4777.495724413646},{"f":"KR","t":"BE","v":4736.935711568772},{"f":"IN","t":"BE","v":4310.858841547874},{"f":"KR","t":"FR","v":3989.1135487744655},{"f":"TR","t":"FR","v":3655.5072337838956},{"f":"TR","t":"BE","v":2914.191100987328},{"f":"IT","t":"FR","v":2029.7429831531033},{"f":"VN","t":"ES","v":1887.1635791252286},{"f":"OM","t":"FR","v":1850.4915331727957},{"f":"TH","t":"ES","v":1710.310530502342},{"f":"BO","t":"BR","v":1587.5970502673167},{"f":"OM","t":"BE","v":1433.8958554124322},{"f":"MM","t":"ES","v":1361.0121821028015},{"f":"IT","t":"BE","v":1233.526403060626},{"f":"CN","t":"ES","v":1220.9665965135412},{"f":"GB","t":"BE","v":980.8940714902902},{"f":"BO","t":"FR","v":945.7932380186737},{"f":"GB","t":"FR","v":943.8574222531972}],"n_exporters":57,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing Tajikistan genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.17→0.15); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×. The spare capacity also sits far from the stranded buyers — reshuffled supply travels ~1.4× farther than Tajikistan’s current flows."},"platinum":{"label":"platinum","name":"Platinum","code":"711011","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"ZA","leader_name":"South Africa","leader_export_share":0.365,"stress_factor":1.6,"hhi_before":0.165,"hhi_after":0.078,"new_leader":"GB","new_leader_name":"United Kingdom","new_leader_share":0.142,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.31,"freed_usd":5332792.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":2106514.761,"reliance":0.626},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":1196106.058,"reliance":0.82},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":649361.33,"reliance":0.45},{"iso":"GB","name":"United Kingdom","lost_usd":449025.115,"reliance":0.386},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":263660.189,"reliance":0.263},{"iso":"IT","name":"Italy","lost_usd":183847.725,"reliance":0.382}],"before":[{"to":"CN","v":2106514.761},{"to":"JP","v":1196106.058},{"to":"US","v":649361.33},{"to":"GB","v":449025.115},{"to":"DE","v":263660.189},{"to":"IT","v":183847.725},{"to":"KR","v":172874.191},{"to":"HK","v":115462.002},{"to":"CH","v":70535.214},{"to":"BR","v":43999.194},{"to":"IE","v":33572.861},{"to":"IN","v":21102.491},{"to":"CA","v":10780.308},{"to":"AR","v":7862.128}],"after":[{"f":"AE","t":"CN","v":525981.5974196816},{"f":"HK","t":"CN","v":194816.34372157181},{"f":"IT","t":"CN","v":190618.53191690004},{"f":"GB","t":"US","v":186742.04605728743},{"f":"TH","t":"CN","v":169319.3217431252},{"f":"HK","t":"JP","v":167179.2789429161},{"f":"RU","t":"JP","v":141926.7728708013},{"f":"GB","t":"CN","v":140677.54696468456},{"f":"RU","t":"CN","v":130193.54727646038},{"f":"DE","t":"CN","v":111018.79438353726},{"f":"CH","t":"CN","v":107216.65247590431},{"f":"BE","t":"CN","v":102548.60895430708},{"f":"AM","t":"CN","v":80471.74871139717},{"f":"GB","t":"JP","v":79366.30289146928},{"f":"BE","t":"GB","v":69682.82629035192},{"f":"KR","t":"JP","v":60600.24529959459},{"f":"AE","t":"JP","v":58261.8855869347},{"f":"BE","t":"US","v":55769.220071688156},{"f":"BE","t":"DE","v":51806.61468680596},{"f":"IT","t":"JP","v":50518.09782960765},{"f":"TH","t":"JP","v":49323.92148365743},{"f":"CH","t":"DE","v":48199.21875634204},{"f":"IT","t":"DE","v":48141.25027746966},{"f":"TZ","t":"CN","v":47871.39637684992},{"f":"SG","t":"CN","v":46108.00661381812},{"f":"GB","t":"DE","v":44737.57540817042}],"n_exporters":65,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing South Africa genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.17→0.08); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×."},"palladium":{"label":"palladium","name":"Palladium","code":"711021","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"ZA","leader_name":"South Africa","leader_export_share":0.246,"stress_factor":1.3,"hhi_before":0.141,"hhi_after":0.141,"new_leader":"RU","new_leader_name":"Russia","new_leader_share":0.288,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.24,"freed_usd":3308150.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":745946.553,"reliance":0.382},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":687264.622,"reliance":0.319},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":556465.481,"reliance":0.415},{"iso":"GB","name":"United Kingdom","lost_usd":381263.745,"reliance":0.398},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","lost_usd":286537.579,"reliance":0.504},{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":228738.885,"reliance":0.221}],"before":[{"to":"US","v":745946.553},{"to":"DE","v":687264.622},{"to":"JP","v":556465.481},{"to":"GB","v":381263.745},{"to":"CA","v":286537.579},{"to":"CN","v":228738.885},{"to":"KR","v":168141.068},{"to":"BR","v":135982.578},{"to":"IT","v":57773.941},{"to":"ES","v":28486.913},{"to":"TH","v":12790.174},{"to":"HK","v":8635.594},{"to":"IN","v":4808.194},{"to":"NO","v":3267.182}],"after":[{"f":"RU","t":"JP","v":417170.357267933},{"f":"RU","t":"CN","v":186311.1742885333},{"f":"IT","t":"DE","v":141207.48458065226},{"f":"RU","t":"CA","v":135228.75702431457},{"f":"RU","t":"KR","v":122676.48687271695},{"f":"BE","t":"DE","v":103317.57308816195},{"f":"GB","t":"US","v":91578.813089582},{"f":"GB","t":"DE","v":73748.74846622291},{"f":"RU","t":"US","v":71763.45513245068},{"f":"FR","t":"DE","v":60029.32280503028},{"f":"BE","t":"GB","v":53710.250714114445},{"f":"GB","t":"CA","v":50674.96498994054},{"f":"CH","t":"DE","v":48117.987593523765},{"f":"KR","t":"JP","v":46021.558043652425},{"f":"DE","t":"GB","v":45496.26192624466},{"f":"IT","t":"GB","v":43452.79987881592},{"f":"IT","t":"BR","v":40162.33805330425},{"f":"AM","t":"DE","v":35178.26376133921},{"f":"BE","t":"US","v":33678.355633632695},{"f":"FR","t":"GB","v":32987.28991651039},{"f":"IT","t":"US","v":29406.82792040996},{"f":"HK","t":"JP","v":28849.79576214857},{"f":"DE","t":"US","v":27635.70124466872},{"f":"FR","t":"US","v":25873.566948816475},{"f":"GB","t":"BR","v":22961.082924195245},{"f":"FR","t":"BR","v":21178.248119951906}],"n_exporters":56,"kind":"backfire","verdict":"Diversification backfires — removing South Africa hands the chokepoint to Russia and concentration RISES (HHI 0.14→0.14). The runner-up is the real problem."},"fluorspar":{"label":"fluorspar","name":"Fluorspar","code":"252922","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"MX","leader_name":"Mexico","leader_export_share":0.38,"stress_factor":1.6,"hhi_before":0.253,"hhi_after":0.283,"new_leader":"ZA","new_leader_name":"South Africa","new_leader_share":0.491,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":1.94,"freed_usd":195840.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":116812.277,"reliance":0.783},{"iso":"IT","name":"Italy","lost_usd":49438.686,"reliance":0.55},{"iso":"TN","name":"Tunisia","lost_usd":24503.652,"reliance":0.941},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","lost_usd":1789.398,"reliance":0.612},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":840.679,"reliance":0.017},{"iso":"BR","name":"Brazil","lost_usd":754.288,"reliance":0.837}],"before":[{"to":"US","v":116812.277},{"to":"IT","v":49438.686},{"to":"TN","v":24503.652},{"to":"CA","v":1789.398},{"to":"DE","v":840.679},{"to":"BR","v":754.288},{"to":"CN","v":632.207},{"to":"EG","v":276.497},{"to":"CO","v":256.269},{"to":"UA","v":154.611},{"to":"PE","v":113.726},{"to":"NL","v":65.998},{"to":"FR","v":54.603},{"to":"SI","v":39.395}],"after":[{"f":"ZA","t":"US","v":46906.000995980576},{"f":"ZA","t":"IT","v":28423.82822455985},{"f":"CN","t":"US","v":23438.450130563906},{"f":"ZA","t":"TN","v":18945.726356060444},{"f":"VN","t":"US","v":12983.68413947422},{"f":"ES","t":"US","v":12880.400817295314},{"f":"ES","t":"IT","v":7356.240144942871},{"f":"MN","t":"US","v":5614.809380048949},{"f":"MA","t":"US","v":3943.221139474787},{"f":"TH","t":"US","v":3259.168704331092},{"f":"DE","t":"IT","v":3003.991493546018},{"f":"DE","t":"US","v":2870.0687656839655},{"f":"KE","t":"IT","v":2503.3722177345066},{"f":"ES","t":"TN","v":2114.844191535493},{"f":"CN","t":"IT","v":1546.292260030169},{"f":"CZ","t":"IT","v":1543.0249347091385},{"f":"MA","t":"IT","v":1430.6347801238535},{"f":"KE","t":"TN","v":1224.0148090284379},{"f":"VN","t":"IT","v":1142.8335378688776},{"f":"NL","t":"US","v":1118.4623016293249},{"f":"CZ","t":"US","v":882.8235971488541},{"f":"CN","t":"CA","v":799.8252918887523},{"f":"ZA","t":"BR","v":752.6400813558051},{"f":"MA","t":"TN","v":690.0100166055216},{"f":"NL","t":"IT","v":654.4430975215496},{"f":"TH","t":"IT","v":640.681075008565}],"n_exporters":47,"kind":"backfire","verdict":"Diversification backfires — removing Mexico hands the chokepoint to South Africa and concentration RISES (HHI 0.25→0.28). The runner-up is the real problem. The spare capacity also sits far from the stranded buyers — reshuffled supply travels ~1.9× farther than Mexico’s current flows."},"titanium":{"label":"titanium","name":"Titanium","code":"810820","flags":["clean_pair"],"shared":false,"leader":"JP","leader_name":"Japan","leader_export_share":0.342,"stress_factor":1.5,"hhi_before":0.185,"hhi_after":0.157,"new_leader":"KZ","new_leader_name":"Kazakhstan","new_leader_share":0.249,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.63,"freed_usd":449452.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":327232.025,"reliance":0.677},{"iso":"GB","name":"United Kingdom","lost_usd":52654.236,"reliance":0.446},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":21280.381,"reliance":0.252},{"iso":"FR","name":"France","lost_usd":13086.023,"reliance":0.077},{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":9737.739,"reliance":0.705},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":7230.436,"reliance":0.219}],"before":[{"to":"US","v":327232.025},{"to":"GB","v":52654.236},{"to":"KR","v":21280.381},{"to":"FR","v":13086.023},{"to":"CN","v":9737.739},{"to":"DE","v":7230.436},{"to":"EE","v":4288.07},{"to":"IE","v":3333.076},{"to":"IT","v":2984.083},{"to":"ES","v":2765.34},{"to":"NL","v":1643.85},{"to":"TH","v":530.595},{"to":"VN","v":451.692},{"to":"SE","v":410.891}],"after":[{"f":"KZ","t":"US","v":89805.31664565693},{"f":"SA","t":"US","v":51853.03257409478},{"f":"CA","t":"US","v":33545.727863579676},{"f":"SA","t":"GB","v":22634.72575287859},{"f":"CN","t":"KR","v":17130.300290252828},{"f":"RU","t":"US","v":14029.37556029065},{"f":"CN","t":"US","v":12877.77046017705},{"f":"KZ","t":"GB","v":12375.0108312565},{"f":"DE","t":"US","v":8484.028188481832},{"f":"CZ","t":"US","v":7261.290620028762},{"f":"SA","t":"FR","v":7257.798299097574},{"f":"GB","t":"US","v":7115.11209897168},{"f":"IT","t":"US","v":6894.865951785915},{"f":"FR","t":"US","v":4288.97335530933},{"f":"DE","t":"GB","v":3725.631196260839},{"f":"SA","t":"DE","v":3725.251668454561},{"f":"CZ","t":"GB","v":3166.1813512243534},{"f":"IT","t":"GB","v":2713.7262246704086},{"f":"SA","t":"IT","v":2074.704470305326},{"f":"KZ","t":"EE","v":1952.2036466469742},{"f":"SA","t":"EE","v":1844.077127684068},{"f":"KZ","t":"FR","v":1815.4026881868826},{"f":"SA","t":"ES","v":1725.3439129975036},{"f":"ES","t":"US","v":1695.4293294187605},{"f":"EE","t":"US","v":1685.448516917478},{"f":"KZ","t":"KR","v":1653.2396188247405}],"n_exporters":63,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing Japan genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.18→0.16); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×."},"silicon":{"label":"silicon","name":"Silicon","code":"280469","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_export_share":0.397,"stress_factor":1.7,"hhi_before":0.198,"hhi_after":0.112,"new_leader":"NO","new_leader_name":"Norway","new_leader_share":0.21,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":1.53,"freed_usd":1534244.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"TH","name":"Thailand","lost_usd":263349.939,"reliance":0.838},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":254091.864,"reliance":0.666},{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":163684.633,"reliance":0.895},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":145011.978,"reliance":0.838},{"iso":"AE","name":"United Arab Emirates","lost_usd":123026.15,"reliance":0.999},{"iso":"MY","name":"Malaysia","lost_usd":100427.054,"reliance":0.513}],"before":[{"to":"TH","v":263349.939},{"to":"JP","v":254091.864},{"to":"IN","v":163684.633},{"to":"KR","v":145011.978},{"to":"AE","v":123026.15},{"to":"MY","v":100427.054},{"to":"MX","v":58995.551},{"to":"BH","v":58277.184},{"to":"NO","v":58156.577},{"to":"GB","v":45110.822},{"to":"QA","v":43557.054},{"to":"ID","v":35347.506},{"to":"NL","v":31781.516},{"to":"IT","v":19637.81}],"after":[{"f":"NO","t":"JP","v":69955.40304647748},{"f":"CA","t":"JP","v":61620.36303053625},{"f":"NO","t":"KR","v":53060.91156378791},{"f":"BR","t":"MX","v":51516.069747497575},{"f":"NO","t":"TH","v":47556.49541012299},{"f":"BR","t":"AE","v":46981.73903452108},{"f":"LA","t":"TH","v":43763.645756382},{"f":"BR","t":"IN","v":38082.113827814275},{"f":"NO","t":"IN","v":37735.0082335131},{"f":"AU","t":"ID","v":25892.041389411144},{"f":"BR","t":"TH","v":24321.39311232284},{"f":"FR","t":"IN","v":22243.940188657656},{"f":"MY","t":"TH","v":21019.570037088582},{"f":"BR","t":"BH","v":20959.18161712658},{"f":"BR","t":"JP","v":20674.89127409241},{"f":"AU","t":"MY","v":20005.63751096327},{"f":"CA","t":"KR","v":19579.053568194457},{"f":"FR","t":"TH","v":19233.52863030533},{"f":"ZA","t":"TH","v":18715.522969411},{"f":"FR","t":"AE","v":17875.892076817054},{"f":"US","t":"JP","v":17522.27566504747},{"f":"AU","t":"TH","v":17359.336212431255},{"f":"NO","t":"AE","v":17302.821530250698},{"f":"BR","t":"QA","v":15969.293780647962},{"f":"ZA","t":"MY","v":13760.051725512867},{"f":"FR","t":"JP","v":13541.982757986494}],"n_exporters":86,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing China genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.20→0.11); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×. The spare capacity also sits far from the stranded buyers — reshuffled supply travels ~1.5× farther than China’s current flows."},"feldspar":{"label":"feldspar","name":"Feldspar","code":"252910","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"TR","leader_name":"Turkey","leader_export_share":0.431,"stress_factor":1.8,"hhi_before":0.225,"hhi_after":0.121,"new_leader":"ZA","new_leader_name":"South Africa","new_leader_share":0.254,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":1.59,"freed_usd":273881.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"IT","name":"Italy","lost_usd":97860.072,"reliance":0.804},{"iso":"ES","name":"Spain","lost_usd":84475.578,"reliance":0.728},{"iso":"RU","name":"Russia","lost_usd":20644.94,"reliance":0.986},{"iso":"EG","name":"Egypt","lost_usd":8886.874,"reliance":0.949},{"iso":"NL","name":"Netherlands","lost_usd":6877.137,"reliance":0.643},{"iso":"PL","name":"Poland","lost_usd":6757.738,"reliance":0.375}],"before":[{"to":"IT","v":97860.072},{"to":"ES","v":84475.578},{"to":"RU","v":20644.94},{"to":"EG","v":8886.874},{"to":"NL","v":6877.137},{"to":"PL","v":6757.738},{"to":"US","v":6412.313},{"to":"DE","v":5729.992},{"to":"BG","v":3830.327},{"to":"DZ","v":3222.79},{"to":"AE","v":3120.312},{"to":"UA","v":2761.79},{"to":"CN","v":2337.169},{"to":"PT","v":2290.941}],"after":[{"f":"ZA","t":"ES","v":27770.764357376283},{"f":"ZA","t":"IT","v":27673.90916608897},{"f":"IN","t":"IT","v":22629.657169534534},{"f":"MA","t":"ES","v":9272.686634016809},{"f":"CN","t":"RU","v":7865.264127267993},{"f":"FR","t":"ES","v":7527.290918341911},{"f":"IN","t":"ES","v":7258.492676158425},{"f":"TH","t":"IT","v":5734.796608898112},{"f":"TH","t":"RU","v":5335.9905367965175},{"f":"FR","t":"IT","v":5045.271807640583},{"f":"DE","t":"IT","v":4445.691613656465},{"f":"CZ","t":"IT","v":4283.399170487819},{"f":"ZA","t":"EG","v":4084.392602473114},{"f":"BR","t":"ES","v":3632.527434520551},{"f":"DE","t":"ES","v":3197.6575308826127},{"f":"IN","t":"EG","v":3196.948031975709},{"f":"CN","t":"IT","v":2826.6208693715025},{"f":"IN","t":"RU","v":2710.3595246812333},{"f":"IT","t":"ES","v":2548.2826445272276},{"f":"MA","t":"IT","v":2503.2887446311092},{"f":"ZA","t":"DZ","v":2413.3620064104307},{"f":"IN","t":"AE","v":2239.40161819076},{"f":"CZ","t":"ES","v":2184.1721710899274},{"f":"IN","t":"PL","v":2178.483149800107},{"f":"FI","t":"IT","v":1969.285336300515},{"f":"TH","t":"ES","v":1876.0798473388788}],"n_exporters":79,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing Turkey genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.23→0.12); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×. The spare capacity also sits far from the stranded buyers — reshuffled supply travels ~1.6× farther than Turkey’s current flows."},"vanadium":{"label":"vanadium","name":"Vanadium","code":"720292","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"AT","leader_name":"Austria","leader_export_share":0.209,"stress_factor":1.3,"hhi_before":0.126,"hhi_after":0.131,"new_leader":"CN","new_leader_name":"China","new_leader_share":0.24,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":1.5,"freed_usd":130061.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":35318.771,"reliance":0.539},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":14515.906,"reliance":0.166},{"iso":"IT","name":"Italy","lost_usd":14374.984,"reliance":0.417},{"iso":"NL","name":"Netherlands","lost_usd":9305.726,"reliance":0.12},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":8795.249,"reliance":0.188},{"iso":"SI","name":"Slovenia","lost_usd":8216.49,"reliance":0.676}],"before":[{"to":"DE","v":35318.771},{"to":"US","v":14515.906},{"to":"IT","v":14374.984},{"to":"NL","v":9305.726},{"to":"KR","v":8795.249},{"to":"SI","v":8216.49},{"to":"TR","v":6094.131},{"to":"PL","v":5991.254},{"to":"CZ","v":4387.97},{"to":"FR","v":2840.002},{"to":"SK","v":2834.616},{"to":"EG","v":2121.245},{"to":"JP","v":1877.155},{"to":"CN","v":1692.415}],"after":[{"f":"CZ","t":"DE","v":9014.054769563538},{"f":"CN","t":"DE","v":8483.432057482953},{"f":"CA","t":"US","v":8446.185873442739},{"f":"ZA","t":"IT","v":4744.913823203548},{"f":"NL","t":"DE","v":4676.355847554908},{"f":"ZA","t":"DE","v":3338.732383689405},{"f":"CN","t":"TR","v":3273.35699253143},{"f":"CN","t":"IT","v":2985.804520803843},{"f":"CZ","t":"IT","v":2637.484315546693},{"f":"KR","t":"US","v":2493.613133061667},{"f":"CN","t":"PL","v":2149.989914290365},{"f":"CN","t":"SI","v":2097.799831130346},{"f":"CZ","t":"SI","v":2068.669252779321},{"f":"KR","t":"DE","v":2027.420831174632},{"f":"CN","t":"NL","v":1956.3011019017763},{"f":"CZ","t":"NL","v":1862.5566939318512},{"f":"ZA","t":"EG","v":1567.9622286654514},{"f":"ZA","t":"SI","v":1437.9504500930418},{"f":"ZA","t":"TR","v":1369.2280544752755},{"f":"CZ","t":"PL","v":1319.39193917069},{"f":"KR","t":"JP","v":1184.3848061843908},{"f":"CN","t":"CZ","v":1156.9800221901137},{"f":"RU","t":"DE","v":1109.5585812946497},{"f":"CN","t":"US","v":1085.7196809654276},{"f":"CN","t":"SK","v":963.1922078059916},{"f":"LV","t":"DE","v":953.0897844564854}],"n_exporters":54,"kind":"backfire","verdict":"Diversification backfires — removing Austria hands the chokepoint to China and concentration RISES (HHI 0.13→0.13). The runner-up is the real problem. The spare capacity also sits far from the stranded buyers — reshuffled supply travels ~1.5× farther than Austria’s current flows."},"manganese":{"label":"manganese","name":"Manganese","code":"260200","flags":["clean_pair"],"shared":false,"leader":"IN","leader_name":"India","leader_export_share":0.256,"stress_factor":1.3,"hhi_before":0.119,"hhi_after":0.097,"new_leader":"CN","new_leader_name":"China","new_leader_share":0.198,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.54,"freed_usd":1805613.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"AE","name":"United Arab Emirates","lost_usd":231110.42500000002,"reliance":0.891},{"iso":"IT","name":"Italy","lost_usd":157539.578,"reliance":0.494},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":131532.447,"reliance":0.278},{"iso":"TR","name":"Turkey","lost_usd":120932.89,"reliance":0.302},{"iso":"EG","name":"Egypt","lost_usd":119405.714,"reliance":0.733},{"iso":"NL","name":"Netherlands","lost_usd":90777.969,"reliance":0.189}],"before":[{"to":"AE","v":231110.42500000002},{"to":"IT","v":157539.578},{"to":"JP","v":131532.447},{"to":"TR","v":120932.89},{"to":"EG","v":119405.714},{"to":"NL","v":90777.969},{"to":"KR","v":82784.22},{"to":"US","v":79019.806},{"to":"ID","v":63192.09},{"to":"CA","v":58088.101},{"to":"VN","v":52435.748999999996},{"to":"MY","v":44216.134000000005},{"to":"TH","v":43281.846999999994},{"to":"BR","v":42709.333}],"after":[{"f":"CN","t":"JP","v":83785.63485416395},{"f":"CN","t":"AE","v":83210.53855782439},{"f":"CN","t":"KR","v":60805.20444359555},{"f":"NO","t":"IT","v":52737.398266298194},{"f":"NO","t":"NL","v":46386.24098234688},{"f":"MY","t":"AE","v":45562.79886702682},{"f":"NO","t":"US","v":38925.15328459403},{"f":"NO","t":"CA","v":33602.444749072776},{"f":"GE","t":"TR","v":33018.401015997704},{"f":"ZA","t":"BR","v":26943.05767110985},{"f":"MY","t":"VN","v":24144.62694222076},{"f":"MY","t":"TH","v":23608.018378212408},{"f":"GE","t":"AE","v":22187.59353382381},{"f":"NO","t":"TR","v":21807.597426112672},{"f":"NL","t":"IT","v":21528.874002023444},{"f":"GE","t":"EG","v":20422.107530762747},{"f":"MY","t":"ID","v":19043.39253795157},{"f":"KZ","t":"AE","v":17010.134544356875},{"f":"NO","t":"EG","v":16621.11286386745},{"f":"CN","t":"BD","v":16620.768335048535},{"f":"AU","t":"ID","v":16379.265955641742},{"f":"UA","t":"TR","v":15507.618730822878},{"f":"NO","t":"DE","v":15393.43824875631},{"f":"FR","t":"IT","v":12484.188693665761},{"f":"PL","t":"IT","v":12454.708023892133},{"f":"ZA","t":"AR","v":12246.10768983597}],"n_exporters":99,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing India genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.12→0.10); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×."},"bauxite":{"label":"bauxite","name":"Bauxite","code":"260600","flags":["clean_pair"],"shared":false,"leader":"AU","leader_name":"Australia","leader_export_share":0.341,"stress_factor":1.5,"hhi_before":0.175,"hhi_after":0.137,"new_leader":"BR","new_leader_name":"Brazil","new_leader_share":0.285,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.51,"freed_usd":6061547.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"BH","name":"Bahrain","lost_usd":1250618.965,"reliance":0.961},{"iso":"AE","name":"United Arab Emirates","lost_usd":1063674.531,"reliance":0.799},{"iso":"ZA","name":"South Africa","lost_usd":654682.728,"reliance":0.984},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","lost_usd":517680.708,"reliance":0.235},{"iso":"QA","name":"Qatar","lost_usd":363126.818,"reliance":0.796},{"iso":"OM","name":"Oman","lost_usd":356867.087,"reliance":0.532}],"before":[{"to":"BH","v":1250618.965},{"to":"AE","v":1063674.531},{"to":"ZA","v":654682.728},{"to":"CA","v":517680.708},{"to":"QA","v":363126.818},{"to":"OM","v":356867.087},{"to":"CN","v":303967.332},{"to":"AR","v":267193.534},{"to":"IN","v":254435.096},{"to":"NZ","v":236912.757},{"to":"IS","v":204660.096},{"to":"MY","v":175229.603},{"to":"MZ","v":171118.206},{"to":"ID","v":123277.569}],"after":[{"f":"BR","t":"ZA","v":652614.3254591493},{"f":"BR","t":"AR","v":267077.16329532344},{"f":"ID","t":"AE","v":187020.60590104476},{"f":"JM","t":"CA","v":177169.53078858583},{"f":"BR","t":"MZ","v":166157.84140169952},{"f":"IN","t":"AE","v":155679.6296319477},{"f":"BR","t":"BH","v":154036.50652290066},{"f":"US","t":"CA","v":153009.64024359192},{"f":"BR","t":"CA","v":152422.980811657},{"f":"ID","t":"MY","v":151139.5819777192},{"f":"ID","t":"BH","v":141875.10342319027},{"f":"CN","t":"AE","v":131282.4808977549},{"f":"IE","t":"BH","v":130918.62463811316},{"f":"IE","t":"IS","v":126119.26531736211},{"f":"CN","t":"BH","v":123902.87316085894},{"f":"IN","t":"BH","v":122639.17546446159},{"f":"ID","t":"NZ","v":117935.83028109907},{"f":"DE","t":"BH","v":112186.66481872862},{"f":"BR","t":"NZ","v":111673.08754448069},{"f":"BR","t":"AE","v":104030.37114651727},{"f":"KZ","t":"BH","v":99388.58647683311},{"f":"ID","t":"IN","v":89759.1093336922},{"f":"ID","t":"OM","v":80240.63422009513},{"f":"KZ","t":"AE","v":78289.06025037827},{"f":"IE","t":"AE","v":76986.8737616026},{"f":"VN","t":"AE","v":72787.70320164968}],"n_exporters":96,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing Australia genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.17→0.14); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×."},"phosphate":{"label":"phosphate","name":"Phosphate","code":"251010","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"JO","leader_name":"Jordan","leader_export_share":0.242,"stress_factor":1.3,"hhi_before":0.154,"hhi_after":0.165,"new_leader":"MA","new_leader_name":"Morocco","new_leader_share":0.308,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":1.89,"freed_usd":810334.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":706927.488,"reliance":0.637},{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":77013.527,"reliance":0.473},{"iso":"BR","name":"Brazil","lost_usd":12331.174,"reliance":0.082},{"iso":"AU","name":"Australia","lost_usd":11217.252,"reliance":0.238},{"iso":"GR","name":"Greece","lost_usd":2844.141,"reliance":0.079}],"before":[{"to":"IN","v":706927.488},{"to":"CN","v":77013.527},{"to":"BR","v":12331.174},{"to":"AU","v":11217.252},{"to":"GR","v":2844.141}],"after":[{"f":"MA","t":"IN","v":235864.02085793883},{"f":"PE","t":"IN","v":132142.5927217261},{"f":"EG","t":"IN","v":72573.62601696083},{"f":"TG","t":"IN","v":63017.876947420395},{"f":"ZA","t":"IN","v":61279.845463009195},{"f":"NL","t":"IN","v":34392.628328692015},{"f":"SY","t":"IN","v":23339.704980192637},{"f":"PE","t":"CN","v":22163.986904786747},{"f":"RU","t":"CN","v":21627.33281653517},{"f":"SN","t":"IN","v":21507.783740416944},{"f":"LB","t":"IN","v":19260.605557324507},{"f":"DZ","t":"IN","v":16416.062362009845},{"f":"PE","t":"BR","v":12321.911996430543},{"f":"MA","t":"CN","v":12102.233511160393},{"f":"RU","t":"IN","v":11053.06469864509},{"f":"TN","t":"IN","v":5080.724891007058},{"f":"NR","t":"CN","v":4563.822842681514},{"f":"NL","t":"CN","v":4241.0304887151415},{"f":"AU","t":"IN","v":2735.0979907125657},{"f":"NR","t":"IN","v":2172.3466739531978},{"f":"EG","t":"CN","v":1561.7352725711544},{"f":"MA","t":"GR","v":1526.093362339882},{"f":"PK","t":"IN","v":1475.3604901727651},{"f":"HR","t":"IN","v":1085.8965175074334},{"f":"TG","t":"CN","v":1056.4641676869428},{"f":"CN","t":"IN","v":1036.7430548644966}],"n_exporters":70,"kind":"backfire","verdict":"Diversification backfires — removing Jordan hands the chokepoint to Morocco and concentration RISES (HHI 0.15→0.17). The runner-up is the real problem. The spare capacity also sits far from the stranded buyers — reshuffled supply travels ~1.9× farther than Jordan’s current flows."},"baryte":{"label":"baryte","name":"Baryte","code":"251110","flags":["mine_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"IN","leader_name":"India","leader_export_share":0.179,"stress_factor":1.2,"hhi_before":0.11,"hhi_after":0.116,"new_leader":"CN","new_leader_name":"China","new_leader_share":0.215,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.71,"freed_usd":167862.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"SA","name":"Saudi Arabia","lost_usd":59053.583,"reliance":0.486},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":53721.35,"reliance":0.231},{"iso":"AE","name":"United Arab Emirates","lost_usd":19652.132,"reliance":0.802},{"iso":"KW","name":"Kuwait","lost_usd":8170.422,"reliance":0.353},{"iso":"TH","name":"Thailand","lost_usd":5562.062,"reliance":0.346},{"iso":"CA","name":"Canada","lost_usd":4840.049,"reliance":0.344}],"before":[{"to":"SA","v":59053.583},{"to":"US","v":53721.35},{"to":"AE","v":19652.132},{"to":"KW","v":8170.422},{"to":"TH","v":5562.062},{"to":"CA","v":4840.049},{"to":"MY","v":3356.96},{"to":"AU","v":2707.55},{"to":"QA","v":2514.468},{"to":"OM","v":1516.006},{"to":"NG","v":1467.271},{"to":"GY","v":964.64},{"to":"BH","v":888.521},{"to":"BN","v":560.327}],"after":[{"f":"MA","t":"US","v":21073.004541609236},{"f":"CN","t":"SA","v":16453.416260645175},{"f":"TR","t":"SA","v":10410.941753924215},{"f":"MX","t":"US","v":8476.402772011803},{"f":"CN","t":"AE","v":8331.237647912589},{"f":"LA","t":"SA","v":8149.690534124084},{"f":"NL","t":"US","v":5965.180724856651},{"f":"MA","t":"SA","v":5196.521539616601},{"f":"LA","t":"AE","v":4637.228758034009},{"f":"KZ","t":"SA","v":3793.7655913610934},{"f":"ES","t":"US","v":3590.3867048529796},{"f":"LA","t":"TH","v":3305.5043534898555},{"f":"DE","t":"US","v":2766.409513128688},{"f":"CN","t":"US","v":2673.598081645811},{"f":"CN","t":"KW","v":2573.628374911587},{"f":"TN","t":"SA","v":2234.456727465029},{"f":"BG","t":"SA","v":2039.3802045329644},{"f":"NL","t":"SA","v":1852.6477220637778},{"f":"DE","t":"SA","v":1767.2295887246412},{"f":"BO","t":"US","v":1700.8241273656552},{"f":"LA","t":"MY","v":1694.7616373052008},{"f":"TR","t":"KW","v":1452.4062308615246},{"f":"TR","t":"AE","v":1407.222593137652},{"f":"CN","t":"CA","v":1285.5210064582755},{"f":"PK","t":"SA","v":1267.4804884133882},{"f":"MA","t":"CA","v":1255.8089701135475}],"n_exporters":86,"kind":"backfire","verdict":"Diversification backfires — removing India hands the chokepoint to China and concentration RISES (HHI 0.11→0.12). The runner-up is the real problem."},"arsenic":{"label":"arsenic","name":"Arsenic","code":"280480","flags":["byproduct"],"shared":false,"leader":"CN","leader_name":"China","leader_export_share":0.342,"stress_factor":1.5,"hhi_before":0.183,"hhi_after":0.151,"new_leader":"JP","new_leader_name":"Japan","new_leader_share":0.257,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.56,"freed_usd":3724.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":695.838,"reliance":0.959},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":613.476,"reliance":0.385},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":456.739,"reliance":0.902},{"iso":"TR","name":"Turkey","lost_usd":321.604,"reliance":0.884},{"iso":"ID","name":"Indonesia","lost_usd":312.093,"reliance":0.986},{"iso":"NL","name":"Netherlands","lost_usd":291.864,"reliance":0.38}],"before":[{"to":"IN","v":695.838},{"to":"US","v":613.476},{"to":"KR","v":456.739},{"to":"TR","v":321.604},{"to":"ID","v":312.093},{"to":"NL","v":291.864},{"to":"ES","v":150.317},{"to":"PK","v":96.383},{"to":"AU","v":87.096},{"to":"RU","v":75.454},{"to":"TH","v":60.307},{"to":"PL","v":59.635},{"to":"AE","v":58.455},{"to":"BR","v":51.821}],"after":[{"f":"JP","t":"KR","v":448.1824900019971},{"f":"DE","t":"IN","v":179.11827946215112},{"f":"JP","t":"ID","v":153.46472950577993},{"f":"JP","t":"IN","v":152.30492097171827},{"f":"MY","t":"ID","v":142.40306471394908},{"f":"DE","t":"TR","v":130.45951311334056},{"f":"FR","t":"US","v":104.50469710140624},{"f":"FR","t":"IN","v":96.32257520204159},{"f":"DE","t":"NL","v":93.62802546712145},{"f":"DE","t":"US","v":85.4723338084751},{"f":"MY","t":"IN","v":84.6185288834342},{"f":"FR","t":"TR","v":83.52448800881798},{"f":"FR","t":"NL","v":67.84341927657545},{"f":"FR","t":"ES","v":67.31466343439698},{"f":"JP","t":"AU","v":67.05972735349226},{"f":"BE","t":"IN","v":60.32446997181561},{"f":"BE","t":"US","v":60.0114450970482},{"f":"NL","t":"IN","v":59.3548912064893},{"f":"NL","t":"US","v":58.267090335123875},{"f":"BE","t":"NL","v":57.89706352122965},{"f":"CL","t":"US","v":54.297575517124855},{"f":"CL","t":"BR","v":51.37701340577488},{"f":"BE","t":"TR","v":46.336067987080106},{"f":"NL","t":"TR","v":42.73744882459461},{"f":"DE","t":"PK","v":38.38294737825573},{"f":"JP","t":"RU","v":37.4562161662606}],"n_exporters":33,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing China genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.18→0.15); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×."},"beryllium":{"label":"beryllium","name":"Beryllium","code":"811212","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"KZ","leader_name":"Kazakhstan","leader_export_share":0.892,"stress_factor":9.2,"hhi_before":0.799,"hhi_after":0.337,"new_leader":"FR","new_leader_name":"France","new_leader_share":0.543,"coverage":{"2":0.121,"3":0.242,"5":0.485},"friction":1.95,"freed_usd":24424.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":22750.309,"reliance":0.97},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":1674.009,"reliance":1.0}],"before":[{"to":"CN","v":22750.309},{"to":"US","v":1674.009}],"after":[{"f":"FR","t":"CN","v":13260.152669019946},{"f":"MG","t":"CN","v":3571.2231964430325},{"f":"LU","t":"CN","v":1219.597547018552},{"f":"US","t":"CN","v":1161.4163196490003},{"f":"DE","t":"CN","v":1123.4574781450347},{"f":"HU","t":"CN","v":1070.6328741007915},{"f":"NG","t":"CN","v":308.80875443826454},{"f":"BH","t":"CN","v":232.18187899506287},{"f":"GB","t":"CN","v":165.0061686822793},{"f":"SE","t":"CN","v":56.97329609902915},{"f":"KR","t":"CN","v":19.10931421113439},{"f":"SG","t":"CN","v":15.694874814063711},{"f":"ZA","t":"CN","v":5.451556561932828},{"f":"TR","t":"CN","v":4.923720566020918},{"f":"BE","t":"CN","v":4.494850850203626},{"f":"NO","t":"CN","v":3.8350571655370826},{"f":"MW","t":"CN","v":0.12371157227057311},{"f":"FR","t":"US","v":0.012421395772143492},{"f":"LU","t":"US","v":0.0006179868187637271},{"f":"GB","t":"US","v":0.0003265384627554431},{"f":"DE","t":"US","v":0.00030025623805713314},{"f":"NG","t":"US","v":7.249981935356069e-05},{"f":"HU","t":"US","v":6.290052887080071e-05},{"f":"SE","t":"US","v":6.694237519485209e-06},{"f":"BE","t":"US","v":2.9457330176387245e-06},{"f":"NO","t":"US","v":1.5777850074739623e-06}],"n_exporters":19,"kind":"uncoverable","verdict":"Structurally hard to cover: doubling every other exporter meets only 12% of Kazakhstan’s lost exports; full coverage needs even a 5× scale-up of every other exporter is not enough. The spare capacity also sits far from the stranded buyers — reshuffled supply travels ~1.9× farther than Kazakhstan’s current flows."},"strontium":{"label":"strontium","name":"Strontium","code":"283692","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"DE","leader_name":"Germany","leader_export_share":0.601,"stress_factor":2.5,"hhi_before":0.408,"hhi_after":0.291,"new_leader":"MX","new_leader_name":"Mexico","new_leader_share":0.428,"coverage":{"2":0.663,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.64,"freed_usd":55907.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":11334.388,"reliance":0.597},{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":10556.859,"reliance":0.473},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":6785.766,"reliance":0.676},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":6283.961,"reliance":0.584},{"iso":"IT","name":"Italy","lost_usd":3448.616,"reliance":0.993},{"iso":"ES","name":"Spain","lost_usd":2681.793,"reliance":0.998}],"before":[{"to":"KR","v":11334.388},{"to":"CN","v":10556.859},{"to":"US","v":6785.766},{"to":"JP","v":6283.961},{"to":"IT","v":3448.616},{"to":"ES","v":2681.793},{"to":"AT","v":2580.25},{"to":"FR","v":2475.828},{"to":"IN","v":2299.249},{"to":"PE","v":1492.377},{"to":"CZ","v":1341.261},{"to":"BR","v":681.285},{"to":"AU","v":621.213},{"to":"ID","v":538.077}],"after":[{"f":"MX","t":"US","v":6718.222158140762},{"f":"MX","t":"KR","v":6544.923087580628},{"f":"MX","t":"JP","v":4980.046236227781},{"f":"CN","t":"KR","v":3742.512066762191},{"f":"ES","t":"IT","v":2234.850628046407},{"f":"ES","t":"FR","v":1849.860067664485},{"f":"ES","t":"AT","v":1605.3818876805333},{"f":"MX","t":"PE","v":1491.2159793661242},{"f":"AE","t":"IN","v":969.9385868581435},{"f":"ES","t":"CZ","v":792.1906258916415},{"f":"JP","t":"KR","v":726.5299238502918},{"f":"MX","t":"BR","v":680.1431642669821},{"f":"MX","t":"AU","v":588.4256608883745},{"f":"IR","t":"IN","v":574.0315451339367},{"f":"CN","t":"IN","v":519.8391154803269},{"f":"MX","t":"CN","v":510.85364503916435},{"f":"CN","t":"JP","v":506.05313695427157},{"f":"IT","t":"AT","v":365.82356447860093},{"f":"CN","t":"ID","v":360.3692985890097},{"f":"MX","t":"FR","v":316.0905611391688},{"f":"MX","t":"AT","v":311.7001621333131},{"f":"MX","t":"CA","v":300.81893485371484},{"f":"MX","t":"IT","v":256.1958679936088},{"f":"ES","t":"TR","v":250.6125436753052},{"f":"ES","t":"BE","v":219.3552306781008},{"f":"MX","t":"NO","v":210.37355062266988}],"n_exporters":31,"kind":"shifts","verdict":"Removing Germany only shifts the chokepoint to Mexico — still concentrated (HHI 0.41→0.29); covered only by a 3× scale-up."},"phosphorus":{"label":"phosphorus","name":"Phosphorus","code":"280470","flags":["refined_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"VN","leader_name":"Vietnam","leader_export_share":0.467,"stress_factor":1.9,"hhi_before":0.343,"hhi_after":0.441,"new_leader":"KZ","new_leader_name":"Kazakhstan","new_leader_share":0.633,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.82,"freed_usd":339666.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":93047.493,"reliance":0.592},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":90239.817,"reliance":0.988},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":64266.752,"reliance":0.912},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":31984.929,"reliance":0.276},{"iso":"IT","name":"Italy","lost_usd":16575.532,"reliance":0.864},{"iso":"US","name":"United States","lost_usd":13740.295,"reliance":0.434}],"before":[{"to":"IN","v":93047.493},{"to":"JP","v":90239.817},{"to":"KR","v":64266.752},{"to":"DE","v":31984.929},{"to":"IT","v":16575.532},{"to":"US","v":13740.295},{"to":"PL","v":11670.478},{"to":"CL","v":7139.757},{"to":"ZA","v":3284.728},{"to":"CN","v":2985.294},{"to":"CH","v":2945.588},{"to":"NL","v":901.024},{"to":"FR","v":630.371},{"to":"RS","v":240.045}],"after":[{"f":"KZ","t":"IN","v":87988.77615502698},{"f":"KZ","t":"JP","v":55311.795442027156},{"f":"KZ","t":"KR","v":51873.54943644451},{"f":"US","t":"JP","v":25237.076802579006},{"f":"PL","t":"DE","v":12958.215712519625},{"f":"US","t":"CL","v":7138.127139765927},{"f":"KZ","t":"DE","v":6770.772763483849},{"f":"US","t":"KR","v":6062.909339154232},{"f":"PL","t":"IT","v":5409.767026872953},{"f":"CN","t":"KR","v":5073.290184378439},{"f":"US","t":"DE","v":4939.6092453283445},{"f":"CN","t":"JP","v":4485.502297040103},{"f":"KZ","t":"IT","v":4073.609138100641},{"f":"KZ","t":"PL","v":3292.5667480406564},{"f":"NL","t":"DE","v":2985.0825372759878},{"f":"KZ","t":"CN","v":2574.5260181914555},{"f":"KZ","t":"ZA","v":2063.7429612006054},{"f":"US","t":"IT","v":1785.2644561475063},{"f":"IT","t":"DE","v":1374.5413501734515},{"f":"PL","t":"CH","v":1054.2458878659863},{"f":"NL","t":"IT","v":938.8520522374247},{"f":"FR","t":"DE","v":870.6328901397935},{"f":"US","t":"PL","v":849.2290266282942},{"f":"JP","t":"KR","v":781.310733125228},{"f":"US","t":"ZA","v":703.7180982420684},{"f":"FR","t":"IT","v":589.2556913207815}],"n_exporters":50,"kind":"backfire","verdict":"Diversification backfires — removing Vietnam hands the chokepoint to Kazakhstan and concentration RISES (HHI 0.34→0.44). The runner-up is the real problem."},"tantalum":{"label":"tantalum","name":"Tantalum","code":"810320","flags":["shared_ore"],"shared":false,"leader":"US","leader_name":"United States","leader_export_share":0.215,"stress_factor":1.3,"hhi_before":0.161,"hhi_after":0.186,"new_leader":"JP","new_leader_name":"Japan","new_leader_share":0.261,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":2.55,"freed_usd":72158.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"MX","name":"Mexico","lost_usd":53534.439,"reliance":1.0},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":7958.4,"reliance":0.26},{"iso":"IL","name":"Israel","lost_usd":2991.035,"reliance":0.219},{"iso":"SV","name":"El Salvador","lost_usd":2092.569,"reliance":0.167},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":1903.313,"reliance":0.262},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":1503.812,"reliance":0.315}],"before":[{"to":"MX","v":53534.439},{"to":"JP","v":7958.4},{"to":"IL","v":2991.035},{"to":"SV","v":2092.569},{"to":"DE","v":1903.313},{"to":"KR","v":1503.812},{"to":"MY","v":687.685},{"to":"FR","v":588.655},{"to":"VN","v":419.466},{"to":"CN","v":87.514},{"to":"TH","v":81.323},{"to":"NL","v":65.105},{"to":"CZ","v":56.203},{"to":"GB","v":47.527}],"after":[{"f":"JP","t":"MX","v":13651.38336826465},{"f":"CN","t":"MX","v":13612.02463070414},{"f":"DE","t":"MX","v":9831.284038594002},{"f":"KZ","t":"MX","v":7052.411667306899},{"f":"TH","t":"MX","v":4867.610543800031},{"f":"CN","t":"JP","v":1667.287003444653},{"f":"KZ","t":"IL","v":1644.9174715979893},{"f":"TH","t":"JP","v":1398.6500015090544},{"f":"GB","t":"MX","v":1389.9928765867285},{"f":"DE","t":"SV","v":893.0148561917405},{"f":"CZ","t":"MX","v":817.8768537223837},{"f":"EE","t":"MX","v":724.6351590713051},{"f":"TH","t":"MY","v":661.4468848291075},{"f":"CN","t":"KR","v":654.7487653366069},{"f":"TH","t":"IL","v":611.3771008302878},{"f":"NL","t":"MX","v":602.0495429971185},{"f":"TH","t":"KR","v":508.62147689011175},{"f":"KR","t":"MX","v":423.52056933790647},{"f":"DE","t":"FR","v":403.00763829311563},{"f":"TH","t":"VN","v":392.86640093815726},{"f":"CN","t":"IL","v":346.6421409822489},{"f":"KZ","t":"SV","v":297.8206574368172},{"f":"JP","t":"KR","v":275.4678522706172},{"f":"CN","t":"SV","v":270.405485541755},{"f":"DE","t":"IL","v":235.13414188663646},{"f":"KZ","t":"DE","v":225.13597769611965}],"n_exporters":36,"kind":"backfire","verdict":"Diversification backfires — removing United States hands the chokepoint to Japan and concentration RISES (HHI 0.16→0.19). The runner-up is the real problem. The spare capacity also sits far from the stranded buyers — reshuffled supply travels ~2.5× farther than United States’s current flows."},"cokingcoal":{"label":"cokingcoal","name":"Cokingcoal","code":"270112","flags":["mine_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"AU","leader_name":"Australia","leader_export_share":0.393,"stress_factor":1.6,"hhi_before":0.206,"hhi_after":0.141,"new_leader":"RU","new_leader_name":"Russia","new_leader_share":0.204,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.73,"freed_usd":43990637.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":16625763.525,"reliance":0.675},{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":8689728.997,"reliance":0.264},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":4924981.201,"reliance":0.361},{"iso":"VN","name":"Vietnam","lost_usd":2501863.576,"reliance":0.773},{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":1915852.027,"reliance":0.332},{"iso":"ID","name":"Indonesia","lost_usd":1649174.893,"reliance":0.611}],"before":[{"to":"JP","v":16625763.525},{"to":"CN","v":8689728.997},{"to":"KR","v":4924981.201},{"to":"VN","v":2501863.576},{"to":"IN","v":1915852.027},{"to":"ID","v":1649174.893},{"to":"BR","v":1046041.539},{"to":"NL","v":1038614.567},{"to":"MY","v":1019974.813},{"to":"DE","v":946418.988},{"to":"TR","v":710691.42},{"to":"FR","v":661628.067},{"to":"BE","v":427354.186},{"to":"TH","v":323518.463}],"after":[{"f":"US","t":"JP","v":5909694.137200501},{"f":"RU","t":"JP","v":4082316.1988194683},{"f":"CA","t":"JP","v":3293683.6587964315},{"f":"RU","t":"CN","v":3009936.3461161004},{"f":"MN","t":"CN","v":2958547.0614425065},{"f":"ID","t":"VN","v":1908962.4555700852},{"f":"RU","t":"KR","v":1747319.0763380195},{"f":"ZA","t":"IN","v":1398255.2080228997},{"f":"MN","t":"JP","v":1367250.8618601277},{"f":"ID","t":"JP","v":1057615.3088774579},{"f":"CO","t":"BR","v":1033370.8459163245},{"f":"US","t":"KR","v":955582.9834558916},{"f":"MN","t":"KR","v":848047.9560411714},{"f":"ID","t":"MY","v":670564.0489131702},{"f":"ID","t":"CN","v":670035.4025798687},{"f":"CO","t":"JP","v":599331.8794169467},{"f":"ZA","t":"CN","v":589842.6340129744},{"f":"CA","t":"KR","v":586548.1270499531},{"f":"ID","t":"KR","v":511030.3803676065},{"f":"CO","t":"NL","v":463563.59608223505},{"f":"US","t":"CN","v":444021.9730953615},{"f":"CO","t":"DE","v":373993.0436314314},{"f":"ZA","t":"TR","v":373709.5384899723},{"f":"CO","t":"FR","v":368752.53007029044},{"f":"ZA","t":"VN","v":350400.8975973801},{"f":"KZ","t":"CN","v":331413.321863607}],"n_exporters":77,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing Australia genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.21→0.14); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×."},"helium":{"label":"helium","name":"Helium","code":"280429","flags":["mine_only"],"shared":false,"leader":"QA","leader_name":"Qatar","leader_export_share":0.282,"stress_factor":1.4,"hhi_before":0.15,"hhi_after":0.138,"new_leader":"DZ","new_leader_name":"Algeria","new_leader_share":0.253,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":1.1,"freed_usd":862355.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":271027.957,"reliance":0.591},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":152411.338,"reliance":0.489},{"iso":"DE","name":"Germany","lost_usd":125104.742,"reliance":0.438},{"iso":"SG","name":"Singapore","lost_usd":84608.192,"reliance":0.891},{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","lost_usd":60821.838,"reliance":0.307},{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":40864.516,"reliance":0.706}],"before":[{"to":"CN","v":271027.957},{"to":"KR","v":152411.338},{"to":"DE","v":125104.742},{"to":"SG","v":84608.192},{"to":"JP","v":60821.838},{"to":"IN","v":40864.516},{"to":"AU","v":19258.974},{"to":"HK","v":15164.676},{"to":"US","v":14286.38},{"to":"GB","v":12068.024},{"to":"SA","v":10849.759},{"to":"TH","v":10246.335},{"to":"IT","v":7879.463},{"to":"FR","v":5446.807}],"after":[{"f":"US","t":"KR","v":69582.84761614671},{"f":"DZ","t":"CN","v":63633.9744138181},{"f":"DZ","t":"DE","v":40960.8507629535},{"f":"US","t":"JP","v":40107.325791639974},{"f":"RU","t":"CN","v":38807.00802461598},{"f":"US","t":"CN","v":36994.472137272736},{"f":"DZ","t":"SG","v":35438.469293503054},{"f":"FR","t":"DE","v":32081.25434561632},{"f":"FR","t":"CN","v":26158.347971293377},{"f":"DZ","t":"IN","v":24330.764295414247},{"f":"RU","t":"KR","v":19689.12813901259},{"f":"DE","t":"CN","v":19222.30022444618},{"f":"CA","t":"KR","v":16877.769882203604},{"f":"US","t":"AU","v":11495.976525768563},{"f":"PL","t":"CN","v":11463.88681694784},{"f":"CA","t":"CN","v":9899.4371657313},{"f":"CA","t":"JP","v":8833.202878368822},{"f":"DZ","t":"KR","v":8738.547054805364},{"f":"DZ","t":"SA","v":8440.488338952546},{"f":"BE","t":"DE","v":7127.039076807606},{"f":"FR","t":"SG","v":6017.847096086812},{"f":"BE","t":"CN","v":5842.361586207029},{"f":"FR","t":"KR","v":5035.946151613909},{"f":"DZ","t":"IT","v":4952.295818702018},{"f":"PL","t":"DE","v":4324.595147039702},{"f":"FR","t":"IN","v":4309.8526636131965}],"n_exporters":114,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing Qatar genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.15→0.14); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×."},"copper":{"label":"copper","name":"Copper","code":"740311","flags":["clean_pair"],"shared":false,"leader":"CD","leader_name":"Congo [DRC]","leader_export_share":0.234,"stress_factor":1.3,"hhi_before":0.112,"hhi_after":0.097,"new_leader":"CL","new_leader_name":"Chile","new_leader_share":0.265,"coverage":{"2":1.0,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":0.93,"freed_usd":19135977.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":13683699.996,"reliance":0.417},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":937430.564,"reliance":0.384},{"iso":"SA","name":"Saudi Arabia","lost_usd":857656.197,"reliance":0.585},{"iso":"EG","name":"Egypt","lost_usd":652882.73,"reliance":0.517},{"iso":"ES","name":"Spain","lost_usd":647020.19,"reliance":0.492},{"iso":"IT","name":"Italy","lost_usd":399329.106,"reliance":0.085}],"before":[{"to":"CN","v":13683699.996},{"to":"KR","v":937430.564},{"to":"SA","v":857656.197},{"to":"EG","v":652882.73},{"to":"ES","v":647020.19},{"to":"IT","v":399329.106},{"to":"TH","v":371244.626},{"to":"US","v":298746.032},{"to":"DE","v":268574.315},{"to":"MY","v":203596.834},{"to":"IN","v":173914.042},{"to":"CA","v":158813.45},{"to":"NL","v":122337.584},{"to":"BE","v":97059.523}],"after":[{"f":"CL","t":"CN","v":1923618.8192908245},{"f":"JP","t":"CN","v":1253972.6827944245},{"f":"KZ","t":"CN","v":1119170.8133974783},{"f":"RU","t":"CN","v":912231.6288234647},{"f":"AU","t":"CN","v":786058.1727865739},{"f":"PL","t":"CN","v":726240.9308196539},{"f":"CL","t":"SA","v":562321.7180246414},{"f":"BG","t":"CN","v":508357.3993999836},{"f":"ID","t":"CN","v":505742.98096907936},{"f":"ZM","t":"CN","v":501461.83718883514},{"f":"CL","t":"ES","v":494170.71654611075},{"f":"CL","t":"EG","v":481685.1093468945},{"f":"PE","t":"CN","v":475129.7406865972},{"f":"PH","t":"CN","v":366653.5674402093},{"f":"RS","t":"CN","v":355357.88526988006},{"f":"JP","t":"KR","v":353446.83936000615},{"f":"CG","t":"CN","v":352070.842325399},{"f":"CA","t":"CN","v":339356.0985704606},{"f":"BE","t":"CN","v":335384.5885997565},{"f":"US","t":"CN","v":325025.88630521507},{"f":"KR","t":"CN","v":315280.8516629549},{"f":"FI","t":"CN","v":269070.18015874474},{"f":"CL","t":"IT","v":253888.01259655826},{"f":"CL","t":"KR","v":252518.7517208312},{"f":"DE","t":"CN","v":226254.52804501104},{"f":"ES","t":"CN","v":207513.26960648323}],"n_exporters":81,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing Congo [DRC] genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.11→0.10); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~2×."},"nickel":{"label":"nickel","name":"Nickel","code":"750210","flags":["clean_pair"],"shared":false,"leader":"ID","leader_name":"Indonesia","leader_export_share":0.512,"stress_factor":2.0,"hhi_before":0.28,"hhi_after":0.077,"new_leader":"NO","new_leader_name":"Norway","new_leader_share":0.155,"coverage":{"2":0.955,"3":1.0,"5":1.0},"friction":1.71,"freed_usd":14464363.0,"stranded":[{"iso":"CN","name":"China","lost_usd":13328736.115,"reliance":0.837},{"iso":"IN","name":"India","lost_usd":415001.326,"reliance":0.448},{"iso":"KR","name":"South Korea","lost_usd":257135.554,"reliance":0.294},{"iso":"SG","name":"Singapore","lost_usd":198415.473,"reliance":0.328},{"iso":"NL","name":"Netherlands","lost_usd":100304.341,"reliance":0.044},{"iso":"GB","name":"United Kingdom","lost_usd":43592.942,"reliance":0.193}],"before":[{"to":"CN","v":13328736.115},{"to":"IN","v":415001.326},{"to":"KR","v":257135.554},{"to":"SG","v":198415.473},{"to":"NL","v":100304.341},{"to":"GB","v":43592.942},{"to":"IT","v":38340.173},{"to":"MY","v":17741.242000000002},{"to":"JP","v":17482.29},{"to":"AT","v":12805.102},{"to":"US","v":10042.087},{"to":"TR","v":5441.268},{"to":"BR","v":5404.053},{"to":"DE","v":4211.433}],"after":[{"f":"NO","t":"CN","v":2166258.8728127936},{"f":"CA","t":"CN","v":1786536.85583596},{"f":"RU","t":"CN","v":1193997.6541483388},{"f":"AU","t":"CN","v":1128798.0741380106},{"f":"NL","t":"CN","v":902229.1013543098},{"f":"FI","t":"CN","v":800517.1471327994},{"f":"NC","t":"CN","v":590682.0361795515},{"f":"BR","t":"CN","v":543248.4737358888},{"f":"CO","t":"CN","v":533961.8104589825},{"f":"GB","t":"CN","v":493727.15874732763},{"f":"ZA","t":"CN","v":452439.9805514106},{"f":"JP","t":"CN","v":394606.969532391},{"f":"MG","t":"CN","v":341037.73957527085},{"f":"KR","t":"CN","v":307228.09970232804},{"f":"FR","t":"CN","v":191455.3077032107},{"f":"ZA","t":"IN","v":136083.01625608298},{"f":"MY","t":"CN","v":125701.13825596297},{"f":"AU","t":"SG","v":118194.7992923139},{"f":"MG","t":"IN","v":99770.56634225702},{"f":"DO","t":"CN","v":96629.42507540928},{"f":"DE","t":"CN","v":85358.43785630564},{"f":"SG","t":"CN","v":81541.53559757648},{"f":"BE","t":"CN","v":71109.59817015956},{"f":"CA","t":"KR","v":54565.766420002976},{"f":"CH","t":"CN","v":52839.968585135575},{"f":"BR","t":"IN","v":51962.33027100071}],"n_exporters":77,"kind":"diversifies","verdict":"Removing Indonesia genuinely de-concentrates (HHI 0.28→0.08); the freed demand is coverable if survivors scale ~3+×. The spare capacity also sits far from the stranded buyers — reshuffled supply travels ~1.7× farther than Indonesia’s current flows."}}}