{
 "note": "Curated substitution graph joined to the atlas’s production concentration. A substitution is an ESCAPE only if the replacement sits in an abundant/diffuse or markedly less-concentrated supply chain; otherwise it SHIFTS the chokepoint to another country. Domain edges from USGS MCS substitutes + battery/magnet/semiconductor literature; not exhaustive.",
 "tally": {
  "escape": 2,
  "relieve": 2,
  "partial": 7,
  "shift": 4
 },
 "edges": [
  {
   "from": "cobalt",
   "from_name": "Cobalt",
   "from_conc": 74.0,
   "from_top": "Congo, D.R.",
   "application": "EV & storage batteries",
   "substitute": "iron + phosphate (LFP)",
   "sub_conc": null,
   "sub_top": null,
   "penalty": "lower energy density, heavier packs",
   "effect": "escape",
   "note": "LFP drops BOTH cobalt (DRC) and nickel (Indonesia) for iron and phosphate — the cleanest real escape in the whole set, and it is already ~40% of new EV batteries."
  },
  {
   "from": "tantalum",
   "from_name": "Tantalum",
   "from_conc": 41.0,
   "from_top": "Congo, D.R.",
   "application": "capacitors",
   "substitute": "ceramics / diamond",
   "sub_conc": null,
   "sub_top": null,
   "penalty": "different performance envelope",
   "effect": "escape",
   "note": "Multilayer ceramic capacitors replace tantalum in most consumer electronics, using abundant materials — the real exit where performance allows."
  },
  {
   "from": "magnesium",
   "from_name": "Magnesium",
   "from_conc": 66.0,
   "from_top": "China",
   "application": "lightweight structural alloys",
   "substitute": "aluminium (metal)",
   "sub_conc": null,
   "sub_top": null,
   "penalty": "heavier than magnesium",
   "effect": "relieve",
   "note": "Aluminium substitutes for magnesium in many castings; it trades away some weight saving but exits China’s Pidgeon-process magnesium grip (~66% of metal on WMD, ~88% on USGS) for a more diversified metal."
  },
  {
   "from": "copper",
   "from_name": "Copper",
   "from_conc": 24.0,
   "from_top": "Chile",
   "application": "grid wiring & busbars",
   "substitute": "aluminium (metal)",
   "sub_conc": null,
   "sub_top": null,
   "penalty": "lower conductivity — bigger cross-section",
   "effect": "relieve",
   "note": "Aluminium already replaces copper in overhead lines and some cabling. Its ORE is more diffuse than copper, though aluminium SMELTING is itself China-heavy — relief at the mine, not fully at the furnace."
  },
  {
   "from": "gallium",
   "from_name": "Gallium",
   "from_conc": 99.0,
   "from_top": "China",
   "application": "power & RF semiconductors",
   "substitute": "silicon",
   "sub_conc": null,
   "sub_top": null,
   "penalty": "lower efficiency / frequency; no drop-in for LEDs, RF",
   "effect": "partial",
   "note": "Silicon is the mature baseline GaN/GaAs improved on, and for some power uses it is a viable fallback — but it cannot replace GaN/GaAs in LEDs, RF or high-frequency parts, where silicon carbide (SiC), not plain silicon, is the closer substitute. A partial exit, use by use."
  },
  {
   "from": "tungsten",
   "from_name": "Tungsten",
   "from_conc": 78.0,
   "from_top": "China",
   "application": "cutting tools & wear parts",
   "substitute": "ceramics / diamond",
   "sub_conc": null,
   "sub_top": null,
   "penalty": "brittleness / cost in some uses",
   "effect": "partial",
   "note": "Polycrystalline diamond and ceramics replace tungsten carbide in specific tooling; broad substitution is limited, so tungsten (78% China) stays sticky."
  },
  {
   "from": "graphite",
   "from_name": "Graphite",
   "from_conc": 76.0,
   "from_top": "China",
   "application": "battery anodes",
   "substitute": "silicon (anode)",
   "sub_conc": null,
   "sub_top": null,
   "penalty": "swelling, shorter cycle life — used blended, not pure",
   "effect": "partial",
   "note": "Silicon anodes (blended a few %) cut graphite demand and use abundant silicon, but cannot yet replace graphite outright. A pressure valve, not a full exit."
  },
  {
   "from": "magnets",
   "from_name": "Rare-earth magnets",
   "from_conc": 68.0,
   "from_top": "China",
   "application": "EV traction & wind motors",
   "substitute": "no-magnet motor (Cu + electronics)",
   "sub_conc": null,
   "sub_top": null,
   "penalty": "lower efficiency/torque density, more copper & control electronics",
   "effect": "partial",
   "note": "Induction and externally-excited motors use no rare earths at all (Renault, Tesla have shipped both) — but only for MOTORS, at an efficiency and mass cost, and not for the many other NdFeB uses. A real exit for some drivetrains, not for magnets in general."
  },
  {
   "from": "magnets",
   "from_name": "Rare-earth magnets",
   "from_conc": 68.0,
   "from_top": "China",
   "application": "lower-grade motors & speakers",
   "substitute": "strontium",
   "sub_conc": null,
   "sub_top": null,
   "penalty": "much weaker field — larger, heavier magnets",
   "effect": "partial",
   "note": "Ferrite (strontium) magnets are cheap and high-volume but far weaker; they replace NdFeB only where size and weight do not matter. Strontium itself is concentrated (Iran)."
  },
  {
   "from": "lithium",
   "from_name": "Lithium",
   "from_conc": 38.0,
   "from_top": "Australia",
   "application": "stationary & entry EV batteries",
   "substitute": "sodium (Na-ion)",
   "sub_conc": null,
   "sub_top": null,
   "penalty": "lower energy density, earlier commercial stage",
   "effect": "partial",
   "note": "Sodium is one of the most abundant elements on earth, so where Na-ion fits it is a true exit — but that is stationary storage and entry EVs first, not high-energy packs. An escape by SEGMENT, not across the board."
  },
  {
   "from": "antimony",
   "from_name": "Antimony",
   "from_conc": 33.0,
   "from_top": "China",
   "application": "flame retardants",
   "substitute": "phosphorus / mineral retardants",
   "sub_conc": null,
   "sub_top": null,
   "penalty": "not a drop-in synergist; reformulation + certification",
   "effect": "partial",
   "note": "Phosphorus- and mineral-based retardants replace antimony trioxide in some polymers, but they are not drop-in synergists and phosphorus has its own concentrated supply — relief in places, not a clean exit for a China-controlled, export-restricted metal."
  },
  {
   "from": "niobium",
   "from_name": "Niobium",
   "from_conc": 92.0,
   "from_top": "Brazil",
   "application": "HSLA / micro-alloyed steel",
   "substitute": "vanadium",
   "sub_conc": 68.0,
   "sub_top": "China",
   "penalty": "different strengthening behaviour",
   "effect": "shift",
   "note": "Vanadium substitutes for niobium in high-strength steel — but vanadium is a China-heavy steel by-product too. Both roads lead back to concentrated supply."
  },
  {
   "from": "cobalt",
   "from_name": "Cobalt",
   "from_conc": 74.0,
   "from_top": "Congo, D.R.",
   "application": "high-performance batteries",
   "substitute": "nickel",
   "sub_conc": 62.0,
   "sub_top": "Indonesia",
   "penalty": "thermal stability falls as nickel rises",
   "effect": "shift",
   "note": "High-nickel NMC uses less cobalt but MORE nickel — you swap a DR Congo cobalt dependency for a nickel one, and nickel’s marginal growth is Indonesia-concentrated (with China-linked HPAL processing). The dependency moves; it does not leave."
  },
  {
   "from": "platinum",
   "from_name": "Platinum",
   "from_conc": 70.0,
   "from_top": "South Africa",
   "application": "autocatalysts",
   "substitute": "palladium",
   "sub_conc": 41.0,
   "sub_top": "Russia",
   "penalty": "price-driven, within the same basket",
   "effect": "shift",
   "note": "Pt, Pd and Rh substitute for each other by relative price — but all three come from the same South Africa + Russia basket. Swapping within the PGMs moves nothing structurally."
  },
  {
   "from": "tantalum",
   "from_name": "Tantalum",
   "from_conc": 41.0,
   "from_top": "Congo, D.R.",
   "application": "capacitors",
   "substitute": "niobium",
   "sub_conc": 92.0,
   "sub_top": "Brazil",
   "penalty": "lower capacitance density",
   "effect": "shift",
   "note": "Niobium capacitors substitute for tantalum — but niobium is 92% Brazil, MORE concentrated than tantalum. A textbook case of shifting, not escaping."
  }
 ]
}