{
  "title": "Semiconductor chain evidence",
  "status": "unpublished pilot",
  "updated": "2026-08-17",
  "principle": "Production, ownership and trade are separate measures. Mixed customs codes are never allocated to chips by price.",
  "coverage": {
    "fab_capacity": "1990-2032F (eleven reported/forecast snapshots)",
    "semiconductor_wafer_shipments": "2007-2025 annual",
    "electronic_grade_polysilicon": "2023 volume and 2025 concentration snapshots",
    "blank_wafer_geography": "2025 concentration snapshot",
    "baci_trade_context": "2002-2024 annual; mixed-code context only"
  },
  "silicon_metal": {
    "snapshot": {
      "source_vintage": 2026,
      "china_production_share": 0.85,
      "measure": "approximate current share of global silicon-metal production reported by OECD",
      "source": "oecd_silicates_2026"
    },
    "trade_series": "See silicon_stages.json; HS 280469, 2002-2024."
  },
  "electronic_grade_polysilicon": {
    "purity": ">=11N",
    "global_volume": [
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "tonnes": 38800,
        "measure": "semiconductor-use volume reported within total polysilicon production",
        "source": "iea_pvps_2024"
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "tonnes": 33500,
        "measure": "forecast demand",
        "source": "sia_poly_2025"
      }
    ],
    "snapshot_2025": {
      "semiconductor_share_of_all_polysilicon_demand": 0.024,
      "germany_us_combined_share": 0.65,
      "china_share_upper_bound": 0.1,
      "wacker_hemlock_combined_share": 0.75,
      "major_suppliers": [
        {
          "company": "Wacker Chemie",
          "home": "Germany"
        },
        {
          "company": "Hemlock Semiconductor",
          "home": "United States"
        },
        {
          "company": "Tokuyama",
          "home": "Japan"
        },
        {
          "company": "SUMCO",
          "home": "Japan"
        },
        {
          "company": "OCI",
          "home": "Korea"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        "sia_poly_2025",
        "oecd_silicates_2026"
      ]
    },
    "trade_warning": "HS 280461 combines solar- and semiconductor-grade polysilicon; SIA states that trade data cannot distinguish them."
  },
  "semiconductor_wafers": {
    "shipments": [
      {
        "year": 2007,
        "msi": 8661,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 12.1,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2016"
      },
      {
        "year": 2008,
        "msi": 8137,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 11.4,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2016"
      },
      {
        "year": 2009,
        "msi": 6707,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 6.7,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2016"
      },
      {
        "year": 2010,
        "msi": 9370,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 9.7,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2016"
      },
      {
        "year": 2011,
        "msi": 9043,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 9.9,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2016"
      },
      {
        "year": 2012,
        "msi": 9031,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 8.7,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2016"
      },
      {
        "year": 2013,
        "msi": 9067,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 7.5,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2016"
      },
      {
        "year": 2014,
        "msi": 10098,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 7.6,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2016"
      },
      {
        "year": 2015,
        "msi": 10434,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 7.2,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2016"
      },
      {
        "year": 2016,
        "msi": 10738,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 7.2,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2020"
      },
      {
        "year": 2017,
        "msi": 11810,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 8.7,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2020"
      },
      {
        "year": 2018,
        "msi": 12732,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 11.4,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2020"
      },
      {
        "year": 2019,
        "msi": 11810,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 11.2,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2020"
      },
      {
        "year": 2020,
        "msi": 12407,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 11.2,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2025"
      },
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "msi": 14165,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 12.6,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2025"
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "msi": 14713,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 13.8,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2025"
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "msi": 12602,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 12.3,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2025"
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "msi": 12266,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 11.5,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2025"
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "msi": 12973,
        "revenue_usd_bn": 11.4,
        "source": "semi_wafers_2026"
      }
    ],
    "snapshot_2025": {
      "top_two_japanese_suppliers_share_lower_bound": 0.5,
      "top_six_supplier_share": 0.92,
      "leading_suppliers": [
        "Shin-Etsu Handotai",
        "SUMCO",
        "GlobalWafers",
        "SK Siltron",
        "Siltronic"
      ],
      "leading_production_economies": [
        "Japan",
        "Germany",
        "Korea",
        "United States",
        "Taiwan"
      ],
      "leading_economies_combined_share_lower_bound": 0.85,
      "sources": [
        "sia_poly_2025",
        "oecd_mapping_2025",
        "oecd_silicates_2026"
      ]
    },
    "trade_warning": "HS 381800 also contains other doped elements and compounds and does not isolate semiconductor silicon wafers globally."
  },
  "fab_capacity_share": {
    "unit": "percent of global 300 mm-equivalent capacity",
    "scope": "commercial fabs >=200 mm; facilities below 5,000 WSPM excluded",
    "source": "sia_bcg_2024",
    "series": [
      {
        "year": 1990,
        "US": 37,
        "Europe": 44,
        "Japan": 17,
        "Korea": 0,
        "Taiwan": 0,
        "China": 0,
        "Other": 2
      },
      {
        "year": 1995,
        "US": 27,
        "Europe": 24,
        "Japan": 19,
        "Korea": 12,
        "Taiwan": 15,
        "China": 0,
        "Other": 3
      },
      {
        "year": 2000,
        "US": 19,
        "Europe": 25,
        "Japan": 16,
        "Korea": 13,
        "Taiwan": 22,
        "China": 0,
        "Other": 4
      },
      {
        "year": 2005,
        "US": 14,
        "Europe": 17,
        "Japan": 21,
        "Korea": 14,
        "Taiwan": 21,
        "China": 7,
        "Other": 7
      },
      {
        "year": 2010,
        "US": 13,
        "Europe": 13,
        "Japan": 18,
        "Korea": 15,
        "Taiwan": 22,
        "China": 11,
        "Other": 8
      },
      {
        "year": 2015,
        "US": 13,
        "Europe": 11,
        "Japan": 15,
        "Korea": 18,
        "Taiwan": 24,
        "China": 12,
        "Other": 7
      },
      {
        "year": 2020,
        "US": 12,
        "Europe": 7,
        "Japan": 18,
        "Korea": 18,
        "Taiwan": 19,
        "China": 18,
        "Other": 8
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "US": 10,
        "Europe": 8,
        "Japan": 17,
        "Korea": 17,
        "Taiwan": 18,
        "China": 24,
        "Other": 7
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "forecast": true,
        "US": 11,
        "Europe": 8,
        "Japan": 15,
        "Korea": 18,
        "Taiwan": 18,
        "China": 24,
        "Other": 6
      },
      {
        "year": 2030,
        "forecast": true,
        "US": 13,
        "Europe": 8,
        "Japan": 15,
        "Korea": 19,
        "Taiwan": 17,
        "China": 22,
        "Other": 6
      },
      {
        "year": 2032,
        "forecast": true,
        "US": 14,
        "Europe": 8,
        "Japan": 15,
        "Korea": 19,
        "Taiwan": 17,
        "China": 21,
        "Other": 5
      }
    ]
  },
  "fab_capacity_by_type_2025": {
    "as_of": "September 2025",
    "unit": "million 8-inch-equivalent wafer starts per month",
    "source": "oecd_fabs_2025",
    "types": [
      {
        "type": "Power & discrete",
        "leaders": [
          {
            "economy": "China",
            "value": 6.28
          },
          {
            "economy": "Taiwan",
            "value": 2.42
          },
          {
            "economy": "Japan",
            "value": 1.6
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "type": "Analog",
        "leaders": [
          {
            "economy": "China",
            "value": 3.64
          },
          {
            "economy": "Taiwan",
            "value": 2.09
          },
          {
            "economy": "United States",
            "value": 1.9
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "type": "Mature logic (>=20 nm)",
        "leaders": [
          {
            "economy": "China",
            "value": 4.23
          },
          {
            "economy": "Taiwan",
            "value": 2.48
          },
          {
            "economy": "Japan",
            "value": 1.24
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "type": "Advanced logic (<20 nm)",
        "leaders": [
          {
            "economy": "Taiwan",
            "value": 1.55
          },
          {
            "economy": "United States",
            "value": 0.84
          },
          {
            "economy": "China",
            "value": 0.39
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "type": "Commodity memory",
        "leaders": [
          {
            "economy": "Korea",
            "value": 4.58
          },
          {
            "economy": "China",
            "value": 2.37
          },
          {
            "economy": "Japan",
            "value": 2.21
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "type": "Specialty memory",
        "leaders": [
          {
            "economy": "Taiwan",
            "value": 1.18
          },
          {
            "economy": "China",
            "value": 0.92
          },
          {
            "economy": "United States",
            "value": 0.67
          }
        ]
      }
    ]
  },
  "current_concentration": {
    "year": 2025,
    "top_five_economies_share": 0.87,
    "economies": [
      "China",
      "Taiwan",
      "Korea",
      "Japan",
      "United States"
    ],
    "source": "oecd_fabs_2025"
  },
  "sources": {
    "iea_pvps_2024": {
      "title": "IEA-PVPS, Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2024",
      "year": 2024,
      "url": "https://iea-pvps.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/IEA-PVPS-Task-1-Trends-Report-2024.pdf"
    },
    "oecd_silicates_2026": {
      "title": "OECD, Due Diligence for Responsible Sand and Silicate Supply Chains",
      "year": 2026,
      "url": "https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/due-diligence-for-responsible-sand-and-silicate-supply-chains_7be0093e-en/full-report/component-5.html"
    },
    "oecd_mapping_2025": {
      "title": "OECD, Mapping the Semiconductor Value Chain",
      "year": 2025,
      "url": "https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/mapping-the-semiconductor-value-chain_4154cdbf-en.html"
    },
    "oecd_fabs_2025": {
      "title": "OECD, The Chip Landscape: Geographical Distribution of Wafer Fabrication Capacity",
      "year": 2025,
      "url": "https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/the-chip-landscape_02dbd028-en/full-report/component-6.html"
    },
    "sia_poly_2025": {
      "title": "Semiconductor Industry Association comments on the polysilicon Section 232 investigation",
      "year": 2025,
      "url": "https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Semiconductor-Industry-Association-SIA-Comments-Polysilicon-Section-232-Investigation.pdf"
    },
    "sia_bcg_2024": {
      "title": "SIA/BCG, Emerging Resilience in the Semiconductor Supply Chain",
      "year": 2024,
      "url": "https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Report_Emerging-Resilience-in-the-Semiconductor-Supply-Chain.pdf"
    },
    "semi_wafers_2016": {
      "title": "SEMI, Another Record Year for Silicon Wafer Shipment Volumes in 2015",
      "year": 2016,
      "url": "https://www.semi.org/en/another-record-year-silicon-wafer-shipment-volumes-2015"
    },
    "semi_wafers_2020": {
      "title": "SEMI, 2019 Global Silicon Shipments",
      "year": 2020,
      "url": "https://www.semi.org/en/news-resources/press/2019-global-silicon-shipments"
    },
    "semi_wafers_2025": {
      "title": "SEMI, Worldwide Silicon Wafer Shipments and Revenue Start Recovery in Late 2024",
      "year": 2025,
      "url": "https://www.semi.org/en/semi-press-release/worldwide-silicon-wafer-shipments-and-revenue-start-recovery-in-late-2024-semi-reports"
    },
    "semi_wafers_2026": {
      "title": "SEMI, 2025 Annual Worldwide Silicon Wafer Shipments and Revenue Results",
      "year": 2026,
      "url": "https://www.semi.org/en/semi-press-release/semi-reports-2025-annual-worldwide-silicon-wafer-shipments-and-revenue-results"
    }
  }
}