32 critical raw materials, from the rock in the ground to the geopolitics of the refined metal. Where they’re mined, who turns them into usable metal, how they really move across borders, who holds each chokepoint — and, when one country does, what you can actually do about it. Built entirely from public data.
Most maps of critical minerals stop at “who exports it.” That’s the wrong end of the chain. Follow a material the whole way — and the real chokepoint appears where the customs ledger can’t see it.
What’s economically recoverable, and where the rock actually sits — often nothing like where it’s sold. USGS reserves for all 32.
See the map → Stage 2 · out of the groundWho digs it up. USGS & BGS production, 1970–2024 — the part everyone already counts.
22-year trends → Stage 3 · into metal · the twistHere the chain bends. The seller usually isn’t the miner — for 18 of 32 materials the top exporter refined it, not mined it. Gallium: China refines 87%, mines almost none.
Who actually refines → Stage 4 · across bordersThe real bilateral flows, both directions — reconciled from UN Comtrade, 2002–2024 + nowcast. Follow any material to any country.
Open the explorer → Stage 5 · the gripHow concentrated each stage is, and where a single country’s decision — a ban, an accident — squeezes the whole world.
Trade-network chokepoints →A finding isn’t a decision. Knowing China holds a chokepoint is only half an answer — the other half is who could break it, whether the world could absorb a cut, and how exposed you are. Three tools, built on the same public trade matrix.
Chokepoints that are a capability, not an ore endowment — no export ban touches them. For each, who could realistically stand up an alternative, and who actually is (Perpetua, Almonty, Lynas, Euro Manganese…).
Open the decision layer → Reallocation stress testCut a chokepoint and reallocate its exports optimally. 4 of 31 materials can’t be covered even if every other exporter doubles; for 8, removing the leader makes concentration worse. With a before/after map.
Run the stress test → Leverage mapAn importer × material heatmap: how much of each country’s supply runs through a single source, and how single-sourced it is. The East-Asian manufacturing belt is the most locked-in.
Find your exposure →The interactive workbench: table, flow map and 3-D globe. Pick any material or any country and trace it from mine to refinery to buyer, with the real trade in both directions.
No paid databases, no black boxes. Every number traces to an open source, the reconciliation is validated against the official series, and the whole thing is built to be broken.
Bilateral trade reconciled from UN Comtrade via CEPII BACI, checked against official BACI — top-1 exporter 25/30, share error 3.5%. Methodology →
Findings re-run against alternative sources, truncations and vintages to see which survive. Robustness →
Limitations stated, and a standing invitation to falsify any claim in the atlas. Break this atlas →