The value chain of the materials the modern world is built on.
32 critical raw materials, from the rock in the ground to the geopolitics of the refined metal. Where they’re mined, who turns them into usable metal, how they really move across borders, who holds each chokepoint — and, when one country does, what you can actually do about it. Built entirely from public data, and extended into 58 end-use value chains from raw material to finished technology.
Two findings — and two checks that the method holds
Independent, public-data research: every number traces to an open source, and the method is built to be broken. Two substantive findings — and, kept separate, two checks that the tooling behind them holds up:
The chokepoint is rarely the mine
Of 58 supply chains, only 5 are constrained by geology. The other 53 were built by capital and policy — so they can be rebuilt.
The Chokepoint Map → The flagshipThe refiner is not the source
For 17 of 32 materials the top exporter never mined it — and the gap holds in tonnes, not just dollars. Not a unit artifact.
The origin gap → Method checkThe forecast is tested, and honest about it
Out-of-sample, last year names this year's top exporter 84% of the time — but that's the naive benchmark, not proof of skill, and we say where it fails (turning points).
The nowcast backtest → Method checkPublic data recovers the IEA’s risk list
The atlas's public-data risk index independently reproduces 4 of the IEA's 6 discrete high-risk minerals in its top third.
The cross-check →Three ways in
See it for yourself
The interactive workbench — table, trade-flow map and 3-D globe. Pick any of 32 materials or any country and trace it from mine to refinery to buyer, or follow one of 58 value chains to a finished technology.
Open the explorer → Read the findingsEvery lens, and the reports
Demand, trade, supply-risk, the refining wedge, chokepoints in motion — every analytical page in one place, plus six citable reports with Zenodo DOIs. Start with the reports or browse the analysis hub.
Go to the analysis → Use the dataDownload and reproduce
The reconciled trade matrix, production and risk tables — all public, all downloadable, all reproducible from the open engine. Built entirely from USGS, BGS, IEA, UN Comtrade and Eurostat.
Get the data →Reserves → mine → refine → trade → the grip
Most maps of critical minerals stop at “who exports it.” That’s the wrong end of the chain. Follow a material the whole way — and the real chokepoint appears where the customs ledger can’t see it.
Reserves
What’s economically recoverable, and where the rock actually sits — often nothing like where it’s sold. USGS reserves for all 32.
See the map → Stage 2 · out of the groundMining
Who digs it up. USGS & BGS production, 1970–2024 — the part everyone already counts.
22-year trends → Stage 3 · into metal · the twistRefining
Here the chain bends. The seller usually isn’t the miner — for 17 of 32 materials the top exporter refined it, not mined it. Gallium: China refines ~99%, mines almost none.
Who actually refines → Stage 4 · across bordersTrade
The real bilateral flows, both directions — reconciled from UN Comtrade, 2002–2024 + nowcast. Follow any material to any country.
Open the explorer → Stage 5 · the gripChokepoints
How concentrated each stage is, and where a single country’s decision — a ban, an accident — squeezes the whole world.
Trade-network chokepoints →The data shows the problem. These show what to do.
A finding isn’t a decision. Knowing China holds a chokepoint is only half an answer — the other half is who could break it, whether the world could absorb a cut, and how exposed you are. Three tools, built on the same public trade matrix.
Who could break it — and who’s building it
Chokepoints that are a capability, not an ore endowment — no export ban touches them. For each, who could realistically stand up an alternative, and who actually is (Perpetua, Almonty, Lynas, Euro Manganese…).
Open the decision layer → Reallocation stress testCan the rest of the world cover a cut?
Cut a chokepoint and reallocate its exports optimally. 4 of 31 materials can’t be covered even if every other exporter doubles; for 8, removing the leader makes concentration worse. With a before/after map.
Run the stress test → Leverage mapHow exposed are you, material by material
An importer × material heatmap: how much of each country’s supply runs through a single source, and how single-sourced it is. The East-Asian manufacturing belt is the most locked-in.
Find your exposure →Explore all 32 materials
The interactive workbench: table, flow map and 3-D globe. Pick any material or any country and trace it from mine to refinery to buyer, with the real trade in both directions.
Public data, reconciled, and falsifiable
No paid databases, no black boxes. Every number traces to an open source, the reconciliation is validated against the official series, and the whole thing is built to be broken — through three rounds of adversarial review that caught and published three real errors. What you can trust, and how we know →
Graded, not asserted
Each commodity carries a reliability status — 21 of 31 robust, the rest flagged up front. Draw headlines from the robust rows. What you can trust →
Robustness-tested
Findings re-run against alternative sources, truncations and vintages to see which survive. Robustness →
Open challenge
Limitations stated, errors published, and a standing invitation to falsify any claim. Break this atlas →