Critical Materials Atlas
Analysis

Analysis

These pages test one question from every angle: where the concentration in critical-material supply chains really sits, and what to do about it. Here is what they collectively show — then the full set, organised in four groups, below.

What these analyses collectively show

Four conclusions the pages below reach from different angles. Follow a thread, or browse the full set underneath.

1

The chokepoint is the refiner, not the mine

Control sits at the furnace: for 17 of 32 materials the top exporter is a processor, not a miner — and the gap survives in tonnes and isn’t transshipment.

the refining wedge → origin trace → why RCA misses it

2

By-product metals are structurally trapped

Metals pulled from a host ore can’t be out-mined — their output is bounded by how much host is refined, not by their own price — and they recycle at half the rate of primary metals. A dependency no new mine answers. (Supply inelasticity, not price-coupling — the price claim was tested and withdrawn.)

hostage metals → the host-facility map → no way out

3

The concentration is real, and survives scrutiny

Measured in tonnes not dollars it holds for 28 of 32 materials; weighted by governance the ranking sharpens rather than dissolves.

value vs volume → tonnes + governance → the governance flip

4

Not every dependency is fixed the same way

Some a stockpile can bridge, some need years of capacity; some chokepoints are easing, some entrenching — and only 3 of 32 are a mine you can’t rebuild.

N−1 resilience → easing vs entrenching → the decision layer

The full setEvery analysis, in four groups.

Demand & consumption

Who actually pulls these materials — gross, net of re-exports, and by policy bloc.

Demand & the squeeze(to 2040) Net demandwho really pulls (re-exports out) Apparent consumptionwho actually uses it Value vs volume(price effects) Does the market show the squeeze?(price test) Host couplingdoes price follow the host?

Trade, origin & networks

The reconciled trade map, economic complexity, and tracing the refiner back to the mine.

The production-constrained anchorthe reconciliation, improved — repairing the origin gap with physics Trade-independent consumptionactivity × material intensity, calibrated — the anchor's input Consumption over timewatch the matrix move 2000→2023 — China's rise, the battery metals appearing Trends22-year evolution Trade-network chokepoints Economic complexity Origin tracewhat's hidden behind the refiner Concentration in tonnes(GeoPolRisk) Two counts of the same worldevery production figure checked against a second compilation — and what each disagreement means Concentration divergencevs a control group — criticals concentrated while ordinary minerals spread out, 1995–2024

Risk & scenarios

Start with the reweightable index — there is no single risk number, so choose the weights. The fixed rankings below remain as method references.

The reweightable risk indexchoose the weights, watch the ranking move — start here Supply-risk indexthe fixed TOPSIS ranking Governance-weighted criticality Supply-shock cascadethe companion echo Reallocation stress testcan the rest cover the cut? Leverage maphow exposed is your country Risk when supply can't respond Build your own risk index Build your own supply shock

Supply structure & refining

Where the concentration really sits — the furnace, not the mine — plus by-product coupling and the decision layer.

Energy footprint of the chokepointscheap energy concentrates refining — read the form of the energy The refining wedgemine vs furnace Who actually refinescapability map Hostage metalsby-product dependency Smelters, not minesthe by-product host map Product spacemine to refine map The security premiumcost to insure vs at risk Chokepoints in motioneasing vs entrenching N-1can the rest cope without the leader? Secondary supplyrecycling & the trapped metals Break the chokepointthe decision layer Substitution networkswhich swaps escape the chokepoint, which just move it Strategic stockpilesdays of cover — the buffer that mostly isn’t there Gallium end-to-enda deep-dive proof Cobalt end-to-endmined in one country, refined in another — and where our own engine erred Platinum-group metals end-to-endthe geological lock — the chokepoint you can’t out-build Explosivesthey don’t travel — world trade is less than Chile alone consumes The AI build-outin customs data — chips, their inputs, and the equipment that carries power to them Grid transformers & electrical steela research note — the rise is shared with all electrical equipment, and the steel moved to China Does scrap answer price?two pre-registered tests — no detectable rise in recycled metal in the two years after a price rise Did China’s export controls bite?a pre-registered test — clear only for antimony and bismuth, as higher prices and new suppliers rather than a shortage How firm is this year’s figure?every USGS edition revises the last one — measured across 665 chapters, and what a current-year number is worth Auditing our own claimswe pushed those measured revisions back through our own concentration study — which of its claims survive, and which sit inside the noise Grinding ballsa pre-registered test that failed — imports did not pass as a yearly mining gauge Mine footprint(from orbit) Mining expansionnew supply

Looking for something specific? The interactive explorer covers every material and country, and the value-chains layer traces 58 end-use supply chains. About the atlas →