How the score is built
■ production (30%) ■ refining (25%) ■ trade (25%) ■ opacity (20%). Each component is 0–100, from public data (production & refining: USGS/IEA shares; trade: reconciled-trade export Herfindahl; opacity: the origin gap). Their weighted sum is the gross score, then discounted for recyclability — gross risk is cut by 0.4 × the end-of-life recycling rate (EU CRM 2023), so a highly recycled material (tungsten 42%, aluminium 32%, antimony 28%, cobalt 22%) scores lower than its raw concentration implies. Substitutability is shown alongside but not folded into the score — a high-risk material that is also hard to substitute is the more strategic.
A transparent heuristic, not an official criticality assessment; it ignores price and stockpiles.
| # | Material | score | recyc | subst. | gross components (width = weighted contribution) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beryllium, unwrought | 76 | — | high | |
| 2 | Ferro-niobium | 63 | — | medium | |
| 3 | Lithium carbonate | 62 | — | high | |
| 4 | Phosphorus | 62 | — | high | |
| 5 | Magnesium, unwrought | 61 | 13% | medium | |
| 6 | Gallium ⛓ | 57 | — | high | |
| 7 | Strontium carbonate | 55 | — | medium | |
| 8 | Rare-earth permanent magnets | 52 | 1% | high | |
| 9 | Natural graphite | 52 | 3% | high | |
| 10 | Fluorspar, >97% CaF2 | 48 | 1% | high | |
| 11 | Ferro-vanadium | 47 | 2% | medium | |
| 12 | Tungsten, unwrought | 46 | 42% | high | |
| 13 | Silicon, < 99.99% | 46 | — | high | |
| 14 | Manganese ore | 46 | 9% | high | |
| 15 | Aluminium ores / bauxite | 46 | 32% | high | |
| 11–18 ? | Germanium ⛓ | 41–47 | 2% | high | |
| 17 | Cobalt oxides & hydroxides | 43 | 22% | high | |
| 18 | Natural borates | 42 | 1% | medium | |
| 19 | Platinum, unwrought | 40 | 14% | high | |
| 20 | Titanium, unwrought | 39 | 19% | medium | |
| 21 | Antimony, unwrought | 38 | 28% | medium | |
| 22 | Nickel, unwrought | 35 | 16% | medium | |
| 23 | Phosphate rock | 34 | 17% | high | |
| 24 | Hafnium, unwrought | 34 | — | high | |
| 25 | Tantalum, unwrought | 33 | 1% | high | |
| 26 | Arsenic | 28 | — | medium | |
| 27 | Feldspar | 25 | — | low | |
| 28 | Palladium, unwrought | 24 | 14% | medium | |
| 29 | Coking coal | 24 | — | high | |
| 30 | Refined copper cathodes | 23 | 17% | medium | |
| 31 | Helium | 22 | 1% | high | |
| 32 | Baryte | 16 | 1% | medium |
⛓ gallium and germanium share one HS6 code (811292; identical trade; hafnium is separate). Computed by build_risk.py from data.json + flows_2024.json → risk.json.