Critical Materials Atlas
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Some chokepoints are easing, some entrenching — the mechanism says which

The mechanism taxonomy is not just descriptive — it is predictive of direction. Track each refining chokepoint from 2025 to 2035 and the movement lines up with why it concentrates: built-capability chokepoints erode as money and years buy capacity elsewhere; policy and thermodynamic ones entrench. Naming the mechanism tells you not only where the bottleneck is, but which way it is going.

Of the six key energy minerals the IEA projects to 2035, only two refining chokepoints are easing — rare earths and graphite — and both are built-capability moats being deliberately rebuilt outside China (MP Materials, Lynas; African graphite + new anode plants). The three that are entrenching — nickel, copper, cobalt — are held by policy (Indonesia's ore-export rules), thermodynamics (China's smelter build-out) and by-product coupling. Concentration is not a fixed fact; it moves, and the mechanism says which way.

Top-refiner share, 2025 → 2035

easing (concentration falling) entrenching (rising)
Mineral (refining stage)20252035TrendMechanismWhy it's moving that way
The rule the data supports: a chokepoint's direction of change is set by its mechanism. Capability moats (rare earths, graphite, lithium's long run) erode — they can be out-built, just slowly. Policy chokepoints (Indonesian nickel) can tighten or loosen fast, because a rule made them. By-product and thermodynamic chokepoints (cobalt, copper smelting) barely move, because they are pinned by physics and coupling, not choice. So the taxonomy answers a question the raw shares cannot: will this chokepoint relax on its own, or do you have to act?

Reading: China's (or the top refiner's) single-country share of refined output, 2025 vs 2035 base case, computed from the IEA's own projected tonnages. Rare earths and lithium refer to magnet-RE separation and lithium-chemical conversion; nickel is Indonesia's refined share. Near-term nuance: lithium refining actually rose 70%→75% into 2025 before the projected long-run decline as conversion capacity outside China ramps.

Source: IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, annex supply tables (pp. 347-364), © IEA, CC BY 4.0. Shares computed from the country tonnages; mechanism tags are the atlas's own (see the Chokepoint Map).

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