Critical Materials Atlas
Method · economic complexity

The competitiveness lens fails exactly where it matters

Economic-complexity analysis (Balassa revealed comparative advantage) ranks who competitively exports each material. The count ranges from ~8 countries (lithium, beryllium, strontium) to 52 — and that top score is the warning: rare-earth magnets, among the most China-refined materials on Earth, have the highest export-ubiquity of all, because dozens of countries re-export them. RCA counts shippers, not refiners, so it reads the most concentrated chains as the most diverse. Economic complexity is the wrong instrument for supply-chain risk — and this page shows precisely where it breaks, which is the point of running it.

Some materials have many competitive exporters; a few have almost none. This measures how many countries can genuinely compete in each — a market-revealed signal of scarcity, beside the mine-concentration story.
How it’s measured

From the one complete country×material matrix we have (exports), I compute Balassa RCA (a country is a competitive exporter when its share of that material exceeds its overall export share), a robust capability score, and relatedness (do the same countries export both?). Ubiquity = how many countries clear RCA≥1: a low number means only a handful can competitively supply it.

Caveat: RCA here is over the 32-material matrix only — specialization within critical materials, not economy-wide, so small and re-export economies can surface as “competitive”, and the threshold makes ubiquity sensitive to thin flows and HS6 pooling. Mine/refine data are top-N; mine leader shown for contrast. Computed by build_complexity.py.

Materials by ubiquity — the rarest are the most strategic

Materialcompetitive exportersmined mainly inmost related materials (relatedness)
Lithium carbonate8🇦🇺 AustraliaNatural borates 0.24, Tungsten, unwrought 0.18, Tantalum, unwrought 0.14
Beryllium, unwrought8🇺🇸 United StatesTitanium, unwrought 0.17, Magnesium, unwrought 0.17, Tantalum, unwrought 0.14
Strontium carbonate8🇮🇷 IranFluorspar, >97% CaF2 0.27, Arsenic 0.21, Feldspar 0.20
Phosphorus9🇨🇳 ChinaAntimony, unwrought 0.24, Titanium, unwrought 0.22, Palladium, unwrought 0.18
Magnesium, unwrought12🇨🇳 ChinaFerro-vanadium 0.36, Silicon, < 99.99% 0.30, Arsenic 0.29
Ferro-niobium12🇧🇷 BrazilMagnesium, unwrought 0.25, Ferro-vanadium 0.24, Arsenic 0.21
Arsenic14🇵🇪 PeruNickel, unwrought 0.35, Hafnium, unwrought 0.34, Germanium 0.34
Tantalum, unwrought14🇨🇩 Congo [DRC]Titanium, unwrought 0.50, Tungsten, unwrought 0.47, Cobalt oxides & hydroxides 0.33
Cobalt oxides & hydroxides15🇨🇩 Congo [DRC]Tantalum, unwrought 0.33, Arsenic 0.33, Nickel, unwrought 0.26
Fluorspar, >97% CaF215🇨🇳 ChinaFeldspar 0.44, Baryte 0.28, Tantalum, unwrought 0.27
Tungsten, unwrought17🇨🇳 ChinaTantalum, unwrought 0.47, Platinum, unwrought 0.42, Palladium, unwrought 0.35
Natural borates17🇹🇷 TurkeyArsenic 0.29, Ferro-vanadium 0.24, Magnesium, unwrought 0.24
Palladium, unwrought17🇷🇺 RussiaPlatinum, unwrought 0.46, Tungsten, unwrought 0.35, Titanium, unwrought 0.33
Titanium, unwrought18🇨🇳 ChinaTantalum, unwrought 0.50, Ferro-vanadium 0.36, Nickel, unwrought 0.35
Phosphate rock18🇨🇳 ChinaFeldspar 0.16, Baryte 0.14, Magnesium, unwrought 0.11
Antimony, unwrought21🇨🇳 ChinaFeldspar 0.32, Ferro-vanadium 0.28, Baryte 0.28
Coking coal21🇦🇺 AustraliaFerro-vanadium 0.16, Titanium, unwrought 0.14, Palladium, unwrought 0.14
Manganese ore22🇿🇦 South AfricaFeldspar 0.24, Aluminium ores / bauxite 0.23, Fluorspar, >97% CaF2 0.18
Aluminium ores / bauxite22🇦🇺 AustraliaManganese ore 0.23, Silicon, < 99.99% 0.20, Ferro-niobium 0.18
Nickel, unwrought23🇮🇩 IndonesiaFerro-vanadium 0.36, Titanium, unwrought 0.35, Arsenic 0.35
Platinum, unwrought24🇿🇦 South AfricaPalladium, unwrought 0.46, Tungsten, unwrought 0.42, Titanium, unwrought 0.33
Feldspar25🇹🇷 TurkeyFluorspar, >97% CaF2 0.44, Ferro-vanadium 0.40, Baryte 0.39
Ferro-vanadium25🇨🇳 ChinaSilicon, < 99.99% 0.40, Feldspar 0.40, Hafnium, unwrought 0.38
Germanium ⛓29🇨🇳 ChinaHafnium, unwrought 1.00, Ferro-vanadium 0.38, Nickel, unwrought 0.34
Gallium ⛓29🇨🇳 ChinaHafnium, unwrought 1.00, Ferro-vanadium 0.38, Nickel, unwrought 0.34
Hafnium, unwrought29🇦🇺 AustraliaGermanium 1.00, Gallium 1.00, Ferro-vanadium 0.38
Silicon, < 99.99%30🇨🇳 ChinaFerro-vanadium 0.40, Hafnium, unwrought 0.33, Germanium 0.33
Natural graphite32🇨🇳 ChinaFeldspar 0.34, Silicon, < 99.99% 0.31, Ferro-vanadium 0.28
Refined copper cathodes34🇨🇱 ChileFerro-vanadium 0.29, Silicon, < 99.99% 0.21, Nickel, unwrought 0.21
Baryte36🇮🇳 IndiaFeldspar 0.39, Silicon, < 99.99% 0.28, Fluorspar, >97% CaF2 0.28
Helium50🇺🇸 United StatesRare-earth permanent magnets 0.42, Ferro-vanadium 0.26, Hafnium, unwrought 0.26
Rare-earth permanent magnets52🇨🇳 ChinaHelium 0.42, Natural graphite 0.27, Ferro-vanadium 0.25

The most capable exporters

Capability = the sum of 1/ubiquity over the materials a country competitively exports (RCA≥1) — it rewards commanding many materials that few others can. Leaders mix large industrial economies with smaller open / re-export economies — read this as export specialization, not industrial capability per se.

#Countrycapabilitydiversity
1🇨🇳 China0.9919
2🇩🇪 Germany0.9919
3🇷🇴 Romania0.8318
4🇩🇰 Denmark0.7715
5🇲🇾 Malaysia0.7216
6🇳🇱 Netherlands0.6413
7🇱🇺 Luxembourg0.6312
8🇫🇷 France0.6213
9🇭🇺 Hungary0.6212
10🇹🇼 Taiwan0.5513
11🇬🇧 United Kingdom0.5311
12🇮🇳 India0.5311
13🇺🇸 United States0.5310
14🇰🇷 South Korea0.5211
15🇮🇹 Italy0.518

⛓ gallium and germanium share one HS6 code (811292); hafnium is distinct (811231). Computed from flows_2024.json → complexity.json.